Carolina Panthers playoff chances revealed ahead of Saints-Falcons

The Carolina Panthers are not eliminated just yet.

Nov 23, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Atlanta Falcons safety Xavier Watts (31) makes the interception in front of teammate cornerback Mike Hughes (21) and New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) during the second half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The Carolina Panthers blew a golden opportunity. We can complain about the refs, Dave Canales' insane playcall, or the fact that the team scored only 14 points in what amounts to a championship game.

They lost, plain and simple. They fell to 8-9, and because of a tiebreaker, they are now out of the playoffs. They're not eliminated, though. They're still alive thanks to the Atlanta Falcons. If they win, the Panthers get into the playoffs.

Somehow, despite the loss and the current standings, the Panthers are still favored to win the NFC South.

Panthers playoff odds surprisingly positive after crushing loss

Jan 3, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) looks to pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Before kickoff, the Carolina Panthers had, on The Athletic's playoff predictor, a 72% chance of making the playoffs. One would expect a tumble after a loss, but they only dropped a little bit. Per the calculations, they still have a 63% chance to make it.

There's no formula given, but what it boils down to is this: The Athletic's model believes there's a 63% chance the Falcons will win tomorrow. If they do, then this loss doesn't matter. If the Saints win, then the Buccaneers will get in.

NFL.com's playoff picture is similarly kind. They had a 78% chance before kickoff, and now they have a 61% chance. Again, this all comes down to the Falcons tomorrow, but everyone seems to feel good about them winning.

Even DraftKings thinks the Panthers are going to get in. They have the Falcons favored to win tomorrow, which will do it. And as a result, the odds of the Panthers winning the division are -190. The Bucs are +160.

The Panthers did a good enough job getting into this position so that a loss wasn't the end of it. But they also blew all their chances to win. Had they simply not been swept by the Saints, they'd be in.

Had they beaten the Seattle Seahawks, who looked somewhat beatable, especially on offense, last week, this wouldn't be a problem, either. They had the advantage coming in, but they also shot themselves in the foot every single time.

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