Breaking down how Falcons-Buccaneers matchup impacts the Panthers' playoff pursuit

The Panthers desperately need the Falcons to win.

Sep 7, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) reaches for the ball against Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker SirVocea Dennis (8) during the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup is the perfect hate-watch for Carolina Panthers fans. Two divisional rivals are going at it, but more importantly, a win by one of them would be monumental for the Panthers' playoff chase.

No matter which way you slice it, the Panthers desperately need the Atlanta Falcons to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but if it happens, it could lead to a surprisingly early division title for Carolina.

How a Falcons win sets up the Panthers for an early clincher

Nov 16, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA;Carolina Panthers tight end Tommy Tremble (82) runs with the ball in the overtime against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

There are a lot of different ways for the Panthers to win the NFC South over the Buccaneers, but many of them come down to the Buccaneers losing more games than the Panthers the rest of the way.

That begins tonight with a Thursday bout with the Falcons. This is maybe the most important game for Tampa to lose (other than the head-to-heads with Carolina) because it could set up a clinching scenario in Week 16.

If the Falcons win and the Panthers beat the Saints this week, the Panthers could clinch by beating Tampa Bay at home in Week 16.

Even if the Panthers lose out and the Buccaneers win out, both finishing 9-8 after that, the Panthers would get the divisional record tiebreaker. That matters more than point differential even if the two teams split the head-to-head games.

So tonight, we should all be Falcons fans. Relying on them to do anything seems foolish, but the Panthers relied on the Saints last week to great effect. Unfortunately, that makes this week's must-win vs. New Orleans a little more challenging.

Nov 16, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Carolina Panthers outside linebacker Princely Umanmielen (3) and Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Casey Washington (82) pose for a photo after the game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Also unfortunately, the Falcons are really banged up and the Buccaneers are getting healthier. Mike Evans might return tonight, Bucky Irving is already back, and the Bucs added Jason Pierre-Paul.

Meanwhile, the Falcons lost Michael Penix Jr. for the season, and Drake London is officially out for tonight. The odds are slim for an Atlanta upset, but the odds weren't good for a Tampa Bay loss last week, either. If the bad times keep rolling, the Panthers could be in a great spot really soon.

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