One major reason Panthers can snatch NFC South from Buccaneers

The Panthers could take advantage of one statistical trend.

Dec 7, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Carolina Panthers face a tall task in snatching the division from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Either they win more games than them down the stretch, win as many but in blowout fashion to take the point differential tiebreaker, or sweep Tampa.

All three of those things seem incredibly hard on paper. The Panthers have not had much success against Tampa recently. Carolina also has a much harder schedule left than Tampa Bay.

There is, however, one big reason the Panthers should feel hopeful, but it has nothing to do with them and everything to do with the Buccaneers.

Why Baker Mayfield's struggles could open door for Panthers' division title

Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) great Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) after a game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Earlier this season, the Buccaneers were 6-2 and Baker Mayfield was an MVP candidate. Fast forward to now, they're 7-6, and Mayfield has not look even remotely like an MVP candidate.

In fact, he's been downright awful since Week 7. It's no secret, then, that the Buccaneers have gone 2-5 since then. Mayfield's play has not helped them, and they've had some winnable games during that stretch.

From Week 7 forward, Baker Mayfield ranks 36th of 37 in both EPA and CPOE among QBs with 80+ passes, ahead of only JJ McCarthy.

For reference, the four names just ahead of him are Justin Fields, Davis Mills, Carson Wentz, & Dillon Gabriel. pic.twitter.com/jObfmgOZ66

— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) December 7, 2025

Since Week 7, only one quarterback has been worse than Mayfield in completion percentage over expected and EPA: J.J. McCarthy. That's not good company to be in. Some notable names ahead of Mayfield include:

• Dillon Gabriel
• Justin Fields
• Carson Wentz
• Davis Mills
• Geno Smith
• Tyrod Taylor
• Marcus Mariota
• Tyler Shough

Bryce Young, for comparison, is essentially in the dead middle of the chart, which means he's been solid in both categories. Either way, he's been significantly better than Mayfield.

This all bodes well for the Panthers, who get to face Mayfield twice down the stretch. Winning those two games assures a division title, and that may be the easiest path to it.

Nov 30, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) looks to pass during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images | Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

The Panthers' defense has been opportunistic this year, and with Mayfield playing so poorly, it stands to reason that they'll force him into some turnovers, which will give the offense more possessions to grind the clock and win those games.

Of course, Mayfield tends to play fairly well against Carolina and definitely holds a grudge from his time here, so he could revert back to a quality QB just in time to ensure the Panthers' playoff drought continues.

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