All the ways the upstart Carolina Panthers can dethrone the Buccaneers in NFC South

The Panthers have a division title within reach for the first time in almost a decade.

Oct 5, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers tight end Mitchell Evans (84) spikes the ball after scoring the winning touchdown as tight end Tommy Tremble (82) celebrates in the background in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Carolina Panthers are tied for first in the NFC South after 14 weeks. Thanks to the New Orleans Saints' upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the two rivals each sit at 7-6 with two games left against one another.

Given that there are only four games left total, it is highly unlikely that this division will be decided before Week 18 in Tampa. But there are a lot of different ways for the Panthers to get into the playoffs.

A wild-card berth is probably out of the question. At 7-6, the Panthers sit two games back of the seventh seed, and the Detroit Lions are a game in between. Overcoming that is unlikely. The path to the postseason lies in the NFC South.

How the Panthers can win the NFC South

Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (94) celebrates after play against the Carolina Panthers in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

There are two main ways to win the NFC South. The Panthers either need to have a better record than the Buccaneers or be tied but have won both contests with them. Given the point differentials the two teams are working with, it could work out that the Panthers (-50 now) end up better than the Bucs (-26 now), but it's hard to expect that.

The Panthers have the remaining four games:

• @ Saints
• vs. Bucs
• vs. Seahawks
• @ Bucs

The Buccaneers have the following:

• vs. Falcons
• @ Panthers
• @ Dolphins
• vs. Panthers

You can see there's a stark difference in schedule. The Bucs have a relative cakewalk and could easily win out. The Seahawks are a tall task for the Panthers.

The Panthers essentially need to win both Buccaneers matchups, beat the Saints, and lose to the Seahawks. They can win that one, of course, but a loss is likely and won't matter in this situation. The Panthers would be 10-7, and the Bucs could be 9-8 at best.

Expecting a sweep is not all that likely, so the Panthers have to beat the Saints (no easy feat in 2025, apparently, for either the Panthers or Bucs) and the Buccaneers once. That puts them at 9-8.

They would then need the Buccaneers to lose to the Dolphins and Falcons, which is not terribly likely. The Dolphins are surging and fighting for a playoff berth themselves, but they're not very good. The Falcons are too injured to expect much from them.

Nov 9, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Devin Neal (24) rushes as Carolina Panthers linebacker Claudin Cherelus (53) and Carolina Panthers linebacker Christian Rozeboom (56) defend during the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

But as long as the Buccaneers lose two of the four and one of the losses is to Carolina and they get blown out a few times (and the Panthers don't), the title is Carolina's.

Because of the difference in schedule difficulty, the Panthers currently have a 32% chance to win the division. It's an uphill battle, but one that the Panthers have the chance to win.

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