Why the Saints pose a much harder matchup for Panthers than expected

The Carolina Panthers, on paper, have a winnable matchup this week against the New Orleans Saints. They just beat the Los Angeles Rams, had a bye week, and are healthier. The Saints are also 3-10.

But the Panthers had a winnable game against the Saints at home in Week 12. They were coming off a big win and still lost. It was a trap game, and the Panthers fell into it.

Not only is this another trap game with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looming, but this is also a much more challenging matchup than a three-win record might imply.

The Saints are no pushover for the Panthers

Regardless of the fact that the Panthers are clearly capable of losing to anyone this year (the Arizona Cardinals and Saints prove this), this is a difficult game for the Panthers.

They're going to want to get revenge, but the Saints aren't a pushover. They're a much better offense now that Tyler Shough has some games under his belt, including a dominant performance vs. the Panthers.

But the Panthers lost that earlier matchup because of bad offense, and that might be the story this week as well. The Saints are top five in EPA per play on defense the last month.

The Saints have had a top-5 defense, yes, that high, in EPA over the past month.

There is light at the end of the tunnel.
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— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) December 9, 2025

Overall, they ranked 12th in opponent yards per game during Week 14. They were also 11th in yards per play, and ranked top-10 in both opponent third-down percentage and sack rate. This is not a bad defense.

The good news is that when Bryce Young and company are faced with a good defense, they usually respond better than against a bad defense.

Young and the offense lit up the Falcons, who were top-10 in EPA per play against the pass and had the number-one ranked pass defense by traditional metrics. The Rams have a vaunted defense, and Young tossed three touchdowns.

The bad news is that the Panthers tend to lose games they shouldn't. They also tend to play down to opponents. The Panthers also tend to lose important games, and this one is extremely important.

DeMario Davi — Nov 9, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders (0) rushes as New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis (56) defends during the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The worst news is that a win quite often follows a loss. The Panthers were good in Week 13 against the Rams and won, so the pendulum is due to swing. One can only hope the bye week counts as their "down" performance and that they don't get swept by the Saints.

Not only would that be embarrassing, it would render the division title almost completely out of reach.

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