Panthers vs. Patriots: NFL experts share picks for Week 4 matchup

The expert picks are in for this week. Perhaps a little surprisingly, they still seem to overwhelmingly favor the New England Patriots at home despite them having the same record as the Carolina Panthers and coming off a disastrous turnover-filled outing. Still, most agree it should be a close matchup.

CBS Sports: Patriots 27, Panthers 20

Sep 21, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) reacts after a turnover at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images | Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

Pete Prisco: "Carolina was impressive in shutting out the Falcons last week, while the Patriots lost at home to the Steelers. They turned the ball over to cost them that game. I think they take care of it much better in this one and Drake Maye and the offense get it going against the Panthers defense. Pats take it."

LA Times: Patriots 24, Panthers 21

Sam Farmer: "Drake Maye’s playmaking ability and New England’s improving defense make the Patriots a tough out. The Panthers could have a letdown after their big division win, and the Patriots grind out a close one."

USA Today

Jon Hoefling (Panthers +5.5): "Carolina impressed in Week 3 and it probably rides this momentum into a solid showing against the New England Patriots. Drake Maye should have a solid day against this Carolina secondary though."

Blake Schuster (Patriots -5.5): "I'm not sure what to make of either team, yet. But I do know New England isn't as prone to mistakes as Atlanta, so it's hard for me to get too excited about the Panthers walloping the Falcons in Week 3."

Tyler Dragon (Panthers +5.5): "I'm still surprised the Panthers blew out the Falcons. I think the Patriots hang on at home, but it's going to be close."

Richard Morin (Panthers +5.5): "The Patriots may have added some talent in the offseason, but they've been unable to get out of their own way in 2025."

Christopher Bumbaca (Panthers +5.5): "The Patriots could have hung 40 points last week if they hung onto the ball. That will be an easier task against the Panthers compared to the Steelers. But Bryce Young can still have a big day if the Pats are again without corner Christian Gonzalez."

Lorenzo Reyes (Panthers +5.5): "Carolina is a confusing team. So are the Patriots. I would stay away here, but I think 5.5 is way too rich for a New England team that's tied for 21st in scoring offense."

The Athletic: Carolina Panthers +5.5

Vic Tafur: "The Carolina Panthers beat the Atlanta Falcons 30-0, and they probably have no idea how that happened. Bryce Young sure didn’t play well. I have no interest in backing him here — or either side, for that matter — but the New England Patriots will find a way to miss a tackle (17.8 percent missed tackle rate, third highest in the NFL) or turn the ball over (tied for second, with 6) and keep the Panthers close enough to cover the spread."

Bleacher Report

Ian Hanford (Panthers +5.5): "You'd think home field would help the Patriots here, but they've yet to get a victory in Foxborough this season. Bryce Young and the Panthers have quietly looked better lately on both sides of the ball. They scored 19 straight points to end the game against the Cardinals in a Week 2 loss and beat the brakes off the Falcons 30-0 in Week 3, only turning the ball over once with three takeaways in their favor. Drake Maye looked better than the box score showed against Pittsburgh in Week 3, but this Patriots team is committing penalties left and right and can't get out of its own way well enough to win this by more than a field goal."

Moe Moton (Patriots -5.5): "The Panthers will travel to New England, which brings us back to why you should bet against them on the road. Carolina is 1-14 with Young as its starting quarterback away from home, and the club lost 10 of those contests by at least seven points. The Panthers need more than a 30-0 home win against an Atlanta Falcons team that laid an egg on the road to prove they're on the right track."

Others: Gary Davenport, Kristopher Knox, Wes O'Donnell, and Brent Sobleski are taking the Panthers' points. Brad Gagnon is taking the Patriots' points.

ESPN

Stefania Bell: Patriots
Matt Bowen: Patriots
Dan Graziano: Patriots
Kalyn Kahler: Panthers
Pam Maldonado: Panthers
Eric Moody: Patriots
Jason Reid: Patriots
Lindsey Thiry: Patriots
Seth Wickersham: Patriots

SI

Clare Brennan: Patriots
Mitch Goldich: Patriots
Gilberto Manzano: Patriots
Conor Orr: Patriots
John Pluym: Panthers
Matt Verderame: Patriots
Albert Breer: Patriots

Our Pick: Panthers 27, Patriots 23

This should be a close game. On one hand, while the Patriots are prone to mistakes, they're not going to do it like the Falcons did. At the same time, the Panthers' defense has been electric for six straight quarters and has proven it can be opportunistic. If Christian Gonzales is out, the Panthers should have some success through the air, which is enough to ride the momentum of last week and win.