Why the Carolina Panthers will win, and why they will lose against Tampa Bay

The Carolina Panthers face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season with a chance to win the NFC South title for the first time since 2015, and make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Tampa Bay has won four straight divisional titles. Carolina won the first matchup earlier this season, 23-20, just two weeks ago during Week 16. Can they repeat the same result?

Why the Panthers will win: Patterns – The Carolina Panthers haven’t alternated between wins & losses for the last ten games, dating all the way back to a 13-6 win at the New York Jets in Week 6. After losing their most recent game, 27-10 to the Seattle Seahawks, the Panthers are due for a win Week 18 at Tampa Bay.

With the wins and losses, the Panthers have also alternated scoring above and below 20 points in each of the last six games; 30 points at Atlanta scored (win), nine points at San Francisco (loss), 31 points against the Los Angeles Rams (win), 17 points at New Orleans (loss), 23 points at home against the Buccaneers (win), and ten points against the Seahawks (loss).

The Panthers are 6-1 this season when scoring 20-plus points as a team, as opposed to just 2-7 when failing to reach that point total. If these patterns hold, then the Carolina Panthers are due to win at Tampa Bay.

Bryce Young failed to complete a pass over five air yards against the Seahawks on Sunday. 0 for 4 with an INT on such attempts.

Young is only the third QB of the last 20 seasons to attempt at least 20 passes but have 0 completions beyond five yards downfield in a game.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 29, 2025

Why the Panthers will lose: History – There are six teams in NFL history that have gone ten-plus games alternating between wins and losses, including the 2025 Panthers. The other five team - the 1994 Colts at 12 games, the 2010 Dolphins and 2001 Broncos each with 11, the 2013 New York Jets and 2025 Detroit Lions at 10 games – all failed to make the playoffs. If the pattern of wins & losses continues for Carolina, they’ll be the first team in NFL history to go 10-plus games alternating results to make the postseason.

Why the Panthers will win: Tampa Bay is reeling – The Buccaneers started off the season hot, going 6-2 over the first eight games, including wins at Seattle and against San Francisco before having a bye week in Week 9. Since then, Tampa Bay is just 1-7, including four straight losses with their most recent defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins, 20-17. They’ve scored on average 20.9 points in their last eight games, but have allowed 27.4 PPG over that same stretch.

Tampa Bay is minus-2 in the turnover department in the last eight games, including three turnovers against Miami. Baker Mayfield is completing 61.5% of his passes over the last eight weeks, averaging 196.4 yards per game with 13 total touchdowns (12 passing, one rushing) and ten turnovers (eight interceptions and two fumbles).

Why the Panthers will lose: Lack of consistency – the win-loss pattern for Carolina is a byproduct of the team’s inconsistent nature. The Panthers haven’t won back-to-back games since winning three straight games from Weeks 5 through 7, and have only scored 20-plus points in consecutive games once this season (Week 5 against Miami, and Week 6 against Dallas). From Dave Canales’ play calling as a head coach to quarterback Bryce Young’s execution, the offense hasn’t been able to string together sustained success all season.

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