Over/Under 7.5 wins for the Panthers? Why Carolina Isn't Going Under

Panthers' offseason additions will keep Carolina in the NFC South title race

Dec 14, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Detailed shot of a Carolina Panthers helmet on the grass before the game against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

As OTAs are underway and the offseason propaganda begins for each team, it's the time of year when every team feels optimistic about what it can become in 2026. As for the Carolina Panthers, the optimism isn't just fabricated out of nowhere; Carolina is coming off a division title and a razor-thin NFC Wild Card loss to arguably the second-best team in the NFL, the LA Rams.

The Panthers' over/under line opened roughly a month ago, and it opened at 6.5 wins on the season, which felt blatantly disrespectful, and had fans and media buzzing about how that should be an over.

Rich Eisen is literally every #Panthers fan thinking the 6.5 wins projecting is very low pic.twitter.com/rbWjgbzizd

— (Thomas) threes&tds (@threesandtds24) April 29, 2026

Now the Panthers' over/under is sitting at 7.5 wins after the initial 6.5 led to tons of over bets. The line at 7.5 still feels like an over, but not to everyone.

NFL Insider predicts regression from the Panthers

Dec 14, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints kicker Charlie Smyth (39) celebrates with teammates after a field goal to win the game against the Carolina Panthers at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images | Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Sports Illustrated's Gilberto Manzano dropped his predictions for every NFL team's over/under line for 2026. When bringing up the Panthers, Manzano predicted an under on the win total, primarily because of lingering doubts about Panthers QB Bryce Young. Manzano still sees flaws in Bryce Young, and thinks the New Orleans Saints are bound to be a last-to-first type of team in 2026.

The Saints offense should be fascinating this season, adding both veteran pieces like RB Travis Eittiene, and rookies with huge upside like Jordyn Tyson. Saints QB Tyler Shough impressed at the end of 2025, but sophomore slumps are still entirely possible.

Carolina's advantage over the rest of the division

Nov 16, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Jaelan Phillips (50) celebrates a sack against the Detroit Lions at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Panthers should have one clear advantage over the Saints, and the rest of the division for that matter, and that's the top-end talent on the defense. Carolina went out and got established studs on defense, bringing in Jaelan Phillips as the premier edge rusher, and bringing in Devin Lloyd to be a leader and improve the Panthers' pass coverage in the linebacker room.

Those additions, plus still having the best corner duo in the division with Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, and one of the best defensive linemen in the league in Derrick Brown. The Panthers now have elite talent on all three levels of their defense now, which can't be said for any other team in the NFC South.

Panthers path to the over

Nov 16, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) reacts to a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Winning division games will be a huge factor; Carolina shouldn't get swept by any division opponent, and should sweep at least one of them, whether it's the Falcons or the Buccaneers. Outside of the division games, Carolina faces some stiff competition, but there are still winnable games on the schedule.

Games against the Browns, Steelers, Vikings, and Bengals are all very winnable games for Carolina, not that they won't be difficult, but winnable. Those four wins, along with four division wins, that's eight right there.

Other games at home that could be surprise wins include Week 1 against the Chicago Bears, and against the Baltimore Ravens, who are coming off a down year themselves. The schedule isn't easy, but the Panthers' path to over 7.5 wins is there.

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