Four AFC Games That Could Determine Patriots' Playoff Fate in 2026

It's more than obvious that the New England Patriots' schedule this season will be far harder than the one they had a season ago. Now playing a first place schedule after making the Super Bowl, the target is squarely on the Patriots' back in 2026.

If they want to make a return back to the postseason and go deep into January, they'll have to go through some of the more difficult opponents in the AFC.

Which games will play a larger role in New England's postseason hopes than others?

Here are four AFC games, two at home and two on the road, that the Patriots are scheduled to play this season. Each one offers its own challenges, but all four of them could potentially dictate how the Patriots' route to the NFL playoffs winds up.

Week 3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Oct 20, 2024; London, United Kingdom; Jacksonville Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby (4) carries the ball in the second half during an NFL International Series game at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images | Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images

The Patriots open up the season with games against the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers, two postseason teams that got the best of them a year ago. After that two-week stretch to begin the schedule, the Patriots head on the road to Jacksonville.

This game feels more interesting than others on the slate, and it's because we don't really know what this Jaguars team is just yet. Is Trevor Lawrence able to string together another successful season under center, and will that offense begin to click once again? Was Liam Coen's first year as head coach just a fluke and they won't be much in the playoff picture?

Knowing how the Patriots started last season, a loss in this game isn't truly the end of the world. But it's a good measuring stick against another young team that surprised the league in 2025. If the Patriots start the season hot and look dominant against the Jags, that could go a long way to pulling ahead in the standings.

Week 13 vs Buffalo Bills

Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Matt Milano (58) sacks New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Now the fun starts. The NFL schedule makers back-loaded the Patriots' schedule to have some of the more thrilling matchups come oozing with playoff intensity. While the AFC East rivals will face off in Buffalo earlier in the year (Week 4), this matchup at Gillette Stadium could truly decide who walks out of the division with hats and t-shirts.

The Patriots had a 21-0 lead against the Bills at home last season, eventually squandering it after halftime to let Josh Allen and Co. back into the division race. That can't happen again this season. While the Patriots may not look the exact same as they did a year ago (and may lose a few more games), the overall demeanor of the squad should be a lot more mature.

This team knows how to win, and pulling out a late-season victory over what have been the kings of the AFC East since 2020 shows the NFL that the Patriots aren't just a one-off, but the real deal.

Week 17 vs Denver Broncos

Jan 25, 2026; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (19) makes a catch against the New England Patriots during the first half in the 2026 AFC Championship Game at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

We don't have a time or date for this game yet, but whenever it happens, it's sure to include fireworks. After Bo Nix was unable to go in the AFC championship in January after an ankle injury, the Patriots ended up beating old friend Jarrett Stidham in a snowstorm. That loss left Denver fans shaken up, wondering what could have happened if their young quarterback was in the game.

Now we'll get that chance to see it play out in real time. The best two teams in the AFC from a year ago have the chance to go at it with potential home field on the line at Gillette. It would be the first-ever meeting between Drake Maye and Nix, and give a little glimpse in what could have been in last year's conference championship.

If both teams remain as strong as they did in 2025, this game could easily determine which team is the AFC's No. 1 seed for the postseason.

Week 15 at Kansas City Chiefs

Dec 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) talked by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (38) in the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Last year, the Chiefs were absolutely terrible. Even before Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL, the three-time defending AFC champions were downright awful on the field. When you pencil in Mahomes' eventual injury, it was a year to forget for KC.

Luckily for them, they'll get a shot late in the season at the now-defending conference champs. You'd like to think that Mahomes will be healthy and ready to go for a December matchup, and it could be a special showing when he goes up against the MVP finalist from a season ago in Maye. The Chiefs weren't good last year, but they've always been a tough out in these parts.

Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce and head coach Andy Reid are all destined for Canton. While one bad season doesn't truly define their legacies, it would nice for the Patriots to "beat the man" as they head into the postseason for a second-straight season.

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