The Patriots May Have Harder Schedule in 2026, But Here's What Really Matters

A lot was made about the New England Patriots' schedule last season, and for good reason.

They had a .429 strength of schedule entering the 2025 season, and rightfully so. The Patriots were coming off of back-to-back dreadful years with only eight combined wins. They were playing a last place schedule, filled with some of the other bottom dwellars across the league.

The Patriots pounced on that, speeding past a rocky 1-2 start to ultimately finish the season with a 14-3 record and a trip to the Super Bowl.

Now the expectations -- and the naysayers -- will be out in full force for 2026, the third season for quarterback Drake Maye and second for head coach Mike Vrabel. The Patriots come into the year with a first place schedule, set to face off nine times against playoff teams from a season ago.

On paper, the schedule is a lot trickier. They won't get to play against the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants and the Tennessee Titans. Instead, the Patriots will play host to the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers while traveling to face off against the defending champion Seattle Seahawks.

Feb 8, 2026; Santa Clara, CA, USA; New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (0) breaks up a pass intended for Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) in the first half in Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Patriots' 2026 opponents are:

Home: Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
Road: Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks

We'll find out how the order of games shakes out on May 14th, but here's how the Patriots can succeed despite a harder schedule.

Ideal Outcome Is Weaker Front Half

It's not all doom and gloom for the Patriots in 2026. They'll get games against the Dolphins and Raiders are home, two young teams with not many expectations. Those two games were the first two matchups for New England a year ago, and could be just what the doctor ordered for the Patriots this year.

It's always nice to start the year on a winning streak. Both Miami and Las Vegas have little to play for with new head coaches, and the Patriots -- if they hope to continue their dominance in the Vrabel era -- need to beat up on the bad teams.

Sep 14, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) carries the football against the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

If the Patriots end up starting the year with games against Seattle, Denver, Buffalo and Green Bay, it could be tricky trying to rebound from a rocky start.

Starting Against Tougher Teams Will Test New England's Strength

But the Patriots are unlikely to replicate last year's winning pace. 14 wins is a lot for a team that had no real postseason expectations, and so that number will certainly dip in 2026. That doesn't mean that the Patriots are a bad team by any stretch of the imagination.

In fact, they may have a worse record, but could be a better overall football team compared to last season. In plenty of games a year ago, the Patriots had to eek out grimy wins. Now, I know that's how winning can happen in the NFL and that every win is meaningful, but there were prolonged struggles in wins against the Dolphins, Saints and Bengals.

Ideally, that won't happen again.

Jan 11, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Elijah Ponder (91) and linebacker Christian Elliss (53) take down Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) during the second half in an AFC Wild Card Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Maye should feel plenty more comfortable in Josh McDaniels' offense, and the winning expectations and mindset should be seeped into the mentality of the players in the locker room. Winning against bad teams should come a lot easier now that they know how to do it.

Remember in the mid-2010s when Tom Brady's Patriots would just casually knock off a division rival by 20 every other week. That's what it should feel like for these current teams. Get into dogfights with the contenders -- the Bills, the Chiefs, the Broncos -- but don't let the Raiders and Jets hang around.

Overall, while the schedule looks harder than a year ago, the Patriots could end up becoming a better team because of it.

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