Raiders’ Path To Earning Playoff Berth in 2026

Although it is unlikely, here is what Las Vegas' path to a playoff berth would look like.

Feb 24, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Las Vegas Raiders general manager John Spytek speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Despite being labeled as a rebuilding franchise, the Las Vegas Raiders have been one of the most polarizing teams throughout the offseason.

The buzz began when the Raiders hired Klint Kubiak as the head coach shortly after the Super Bowl. It was the last hire of this year's coaching cycle, but it could prove to be the best one made by any team in need of a head coach heading into the offseason. That was followed by the Baltimore Ravens backing out of an agreed-upon trade for pass rusher Maxx Crosby, which occurred before the Raiders inevitably selected Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Jun 9, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) and coach Klint Kubiak during minicamp at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

All that to say, Las Vegas is facing a steep climb to reach the playoffs, and it is an unlikely scenario, but based on what the front office has orchestrated this offseason, there is a non-zero chance the Raiders shock the league and reach the playoffs. Here are a couple of chips that need to fall Las Vegas' way for that to happen.

Raiders Must Stay Afloat by Week 9

Jun 3, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) hugs quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) during organized team activities at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's been well documented that Las Vegas' schedule is one of the toughest slates in the league this season. In the first eight games, the Raiders face the Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams, and Jets.

That is a treacherous path that could leave the Raiders severely wounded. That being said, if Las Vegas can manage a 3-5 record during that span, it should take it gladly. Obviously, every team wants to be above .500 by the midway point, but considering the opponents during that stretch, winning three games would give the Raiders a fighter's chance on the back nine of the season.

Enter the Bye Week Near .500

Jun 9, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan (left), owner Mark Davis (center) and general manager John Spytek during minicamp at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Las Vegas' bye comes in Week 12, which is relatively late compared to the rest of the league. However, it does paint a clear picture of how the team should feel heading into the final five games of the season.

While it would not be ideal, owning a 5-7 record, depending on where the rest of the AFC stands, is not the worst spot to be in at that point of the season. Considering who remains after the bye, Las Vegas has a viable argument to win the majority of those contests. The Raiders host the Chargers and Broncos, who are each expected to be very good in 2026, but those games being at Allegiant Stadium is something.

May 20, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty (2) speaks during a news conference during organized team activities at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Then, the Raiders take on the lowly Titans and Cardinals, two winnable games, followed by the Chiefs, who could be resting starters in Week 18. It is wishful thinking, but in those circumstances, the Raiders could earn a few wins during that stretch. Again, I don't expect Las Vegas to make the playoffs, but this is a hypothetical path it would have to take to accomplish that goal.