The 3 Keys For Depleted Ravens To Beat Saints Sunday

Jesse Minter wants nothing more than to win his first home game as head coach of the Baltimore Ravens.

And he was a heavy favorite to do so most of the week, after throttling the Colts Week 1 and getting the rebuilding Saints coming to him for a second-straight road game after losing to Detroit in heartbreaking fashion in overtime, negating a wild comeback. Things seemed to be setting up pretty nicely, and then the Ravens started practice on Wednesday and like none of their key players took part.

Okay, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but not by all that much.

Two of their starting receivers won’t be playing – Zay Flowers who had 150 yards in first two quarters in Declan Doyle’s offense HYPER and rookie Ja’Kobi Lane. An offensive line that was quite suspect in pass protection could be decidedly worse, with center Jovaughn Gwyn a project at best and their only veteran interior lineman, John Simpson (groin) and star left tackle Ronnie Stanley (toe) questionable.

It long seemed clear to us that All Pro defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike (recovering from neck surgery) wouldn’t play until practicing a full week, same with starting linebacker Teddye Buchanan (ACL surgery), so the Ravens were already preparing to be without them. But top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson picking up a finger injury that kept him from really practicing all week was not.

Yeah, it’s a lot to navigate and it’s going to require some practice-squad elevations and some schematic changes and the Ravens putting an emphasis on certain formations and some position groups in ways that probably weren’t originally in the cards. Here’s what I expect, and these are the keys to handling an increasingly difficult predicament:

Get Heavy

Running seven plays with an extra offensive lineman last week worked really well, especially when “Joker” Durham Smythe (hybrid TE/FB/WR) was on the field. I could see Smythe playing more than 40 snaps again. And even if Carson Vinson has to start in place of Stanley, use Emery Jones as the tackle eligible, beyond just goal-to-go situations.

Elevating blocking tight end Nick Vannett, who has a big frame and knows how to use it, might be the way to go, in place of rookie Josh Cuevas. The other rookie TE, Matthew Hibner, is a Joker WR for me, effectively doing what Lane would normally do in 11 personnel (three-receiver sets).

The Saints just for got defensive lineman Cam Jordan back from a long absence and with the Saints defense on the field for 73 snaps week one and getting pushed around by the Lions on the ground, this seems pretty obvious to me.

Along those lines …

Even More Under Center Attack

So an offensive line not good in pass pro might be worse, and potentially markedly work if tackle is now compromised too. All the more reason to help them out and lean into I formation stuff with Derrick Henry seven yards deep and Lamar Jackson selling play action down there at the line of scrimmage.

Detroit back Jahmyr Gibbs led the NFL with 27 carries last week, nearly 50% more than the next closest guy – Henry. Here’s how that worked out for these two (and Henry is much bigger and more powerful than Gibbs; Gibbs is more explosive):

Gibbs Under Center: 27 rushes – 138 yards (5.1/rush) - 2 TDs

Henry Under Center: 19 rushes – 130 yards (6.8/rush) - 2 TDs

Will Lamar’s legs become a bigger part of the story? Well, Saints coordinator Brandon Staley bottled him up in two prior meetings, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson tore off a few longer ones Sunday.

Emerging Edge Defenders

If Hendrickson and Madubuike are out, Minter’s ability to get push with four and win upfront with light boxes takes a hit. Hendrickson was a beast in Week 1 and made life a lot easier for Tavius Robinson on the other taking 25 pass rush reps lined up on the left tackle. Without him, Minter is going to have to mix and match and search for matchups.

Oh, and this is a much better Saints offensive line to the one they faced last week. There has been oh so much hype coming out of Owings Mills and Trenton Simpson and Mike Green (recall those 10 sack predictions?) as emerging pass rushers, and instead of finding the starting center or potential No. 1 move tight end they desperately needed in the second round general manager Eric DeCosta – a colossal failure taking edge players anywhere from the late first round through third round (this is a Mike Elias-level fraud job when it comes to these players) grabbed Zion Young instead.

One of those three is going to need to show up no matter what, and probably more than one if Hendrickson is limited or out.

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