The Ravens Must Emphasize These 3 Things To Upset The Falcons

The Ravens are underdogs for the first time under rookie head coach Jesse Minter, and rightfully so.

The Falcons board the second-best run game in the NFL – and at 477 yards the last two weeks since Michael Penix Jr. took over at quarterback, it’s really the best (Bijan Robinson is averaging a cool 7.4/carry running outside zone). They are allowing an NFL-best 2.7 yards per carry – a half yard better than the rest of the NFL – and also have the number one pass rush in the league. And they are at home on a Sunday night.

The Ravens’ injury report continues to look quite imposing, from quarterback Lamar Jackson (ankle) not practicing all week, on down (there are going to be quite a few absences) and rookie offensive coordinator Declan Doyle must also navigate a makeshift offensive line for at least another week until new trade acquisition Cam Jurgens is out of the concussion protocol (a lot about that risky trade is odd).

It’s a lot to digest and the team is also in its second week back from traveling to another continent to play a football game in Brazil and some around the game believe the impact of that can take hold more acutely in the second week back. Baltimore’s run game is going nowhere with this offensive line right now no matter what Derrick Henry tries, which could spell big problems with backup QB Snoop Huntley not nearly as adept pushing the ball downfield as Jackson is (Lamar is leading the NFL at 10.1 yards/attempt and Huntley is at 5.9/attempt in his career.

Still, the Falcons have not yet proven to be a juggernaut under new coach Kevin Stefanski, the Ravens have a strong understanding of how he likes to operating facing him for years in Cleveland and Ravens offensive line coach Dwayne Ledford came over from Atlanta so he should have as good a read on Bijan Robinson as anyone, not that it will matter.

There is a path to win, and it will take the Ravens adhering to these principles:

Sell Out To Stop The Run

The Ravens have played just five snaps in a 4-3 look all season. They should double that in the first half Sunday night. They’ve played just 24 snaps in a 3-4. Being in nickel or dime 90% of the time won’t fly against these Dirty Birds, and Minter has to know that.

“I think it is an exciting challenge for us, when you pride yourself on stopping the run,” middle linebacker Roquan Smith said. “Lot of respect for [Bijan Robinson] as a runner, their offensive line, their receivers, with their willingness to block. I think it is a great challenge for us. I look at this as a front-seven game. It is about showing up, and obviously the whole world's watching, so showing up and showing out."

Um, maybe a front-eight game. Could line up with Zion Young and Tavius Robinson on the edge, Calais Campbell (a former Falcon) and Nnamdi Madubuike inside (or even a Broderick Washington type), with hybrid defensive back Kyle Hamilton mugging the line of scrimmage as a de-facto LB, along with linebackers Smith, Trenton Simpson and Teddye Buchanan on the field.

We should see some personnel deployments Sunday that we have not seen prior. This difficult of this assignment dictates it.

Get Heavy On Offense

So the line is still shaky and do-it-all-blocking tight end Durham Smythe was lost for the season, and we are asking more of a rookie tight ends that was expected. But, it appears both starting tackles – Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten are good to go. Running behind them has been one of the few things to work for the Ravens lately on the ground, and the perimeter attack will be huge all around Sunday, and extra tackle Carson Vinson should see plenty of the field.

The Falcons are mauling people at the line of scrimmage (72% success rate against the run is nuts) and not devoted a ton of manpower to do so. Ravens have to find a way to swing the math at least a little more in their favor and unbalanced lines and tackle-eligible plays can make that happen.

“For you to be No. 1 in the run game,” Henry explained of the Falcons, “you have to have guys that are willing to go tackle by any means. And it means something to them, from what we see on tape."

Screens Here, There, Everywhere

Doyle kept going on and on Thursday morning about nothing changing in terms of his overarching offensive goals if he has to play Huntley (he will). Um, that best just be lip service.

“Absolutely, when we put the game plan together, the mindset is still the same,” Doyle opined on Thursday. "We are still trying to stress and attack rules. We are still trying to go after a defense and see if we can pry out bigger plays and be able to move the ball down the field."

This needs to be a scaled -down approach loaded with high-percentage routes and checkdowns everywhere against a team getting a 47% pressure rate without having to blitz (20%, 29th in NFL). Short routes to the outside and trying to crate situations for big YAC is what is required here. Huntley is erratic throwing downfield and doesn't have Jackson's arm; the approach must reflect that.

Henry is already on pace to shatter his 15 receptions last season (seven through four games) and he should get fed some in the air by design – again, to the outside. More bubble screens and passes behind the line of scrimmage might be in order.

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