Advanced stats prove Seahawks first-round pick's star potential is definitely there

Seattle's 2024 first-round draft pick had a rookie season that was a little too quiet - but advanced stats show what could be.

Dec 8, 2024; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Byron Murphy II (91) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. | / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Knowing that the Seattle Seahawks were very much interested in Georgia's Jalen Carter and that they had a strong need for a young interior defensive lineman, we had our finger over the publish button on a story about Seattle drafting Carter ready to go. Instead, they went with Illinois corner Devon Witherspoon - a decision that so far has worked out pretty well for all parties but will have to be revisited in the coming years as their respective pro careers develop.

The Seahawks still needed to address the youth iDL need, though - so in the first round of the following year's draft the took Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II at No. 18 overall. While Carter hit the NFL landscape like a meteor, Murphy has gotten off to a much slower start. His rookie year ended with just half a sack, one QB hit and two tackles for a loss.

While it's true that rookie nose tackles rarely post big traditional numbers, the Seahawks had a right to expect more from Murphy, who many analysts considered the top defensive prospect in the entire 2024 draft class.

Still, there were signs that Murphy could still develop into something special. According to Nick Baumgardner at The Athletic, Murphy needs to work on his run defense but his pressure rate was only 1.3% lower than Jalen Carter's.

"Murphy’s reliability as a run defender last season wasn’t as consistent as it needed to be, though he still managed 21 pressures and a sack, despite his low snap count. He recorded a pressure on 9.1 percent of his opportunities (for context, Eagles star Jalen Carter was at 10.4 percent)."

That said, pressures aren't sacks/hits and there have been plenty of first-round prospects who haven't been able to convert them and burnt out, even after a few seasons in the league.

If Murphy isn't one of them and can grow into his game then nobody will really be in a position to complain. However, if he can't take the leap the decision to pass on Carter may sour pretty bad - no matter how great Withespoon turns out to be at his position.

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