ESPN predicts Seattle Seahawks fumble first place with stunning upset loss

Seattle is predicted to win tonight's massive rematch with the division rival Rams, but miss out on the playoffs thanks to a let-down next weekend.

Dec 11, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard (30) stiff arms a way from a tackle attempt by Seattle Seahawks cornerback Tariq Woolen (27) during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Tonight is the biggest game of the Seattle Seahawks' season. Winning the rematch with the Los Angeles Rams would secure them a playoff spot and give them a 53% chance of landing the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC.

However, a victory on Thursday Night Football would not guarantee that coveted first-round bye that will be so important in a loaded NFC field.

According to ESPN's latest simulations, the Seahawks will win tonight's game against the Rams, 27-25 thanks to a long clutch field goal from Jason Myers.

"On Thursday night, the Seahawks snuck past the Rams with a time-expiring, 55-yard field goal fromJason Myers. Not only did that outcome leave the NFC West wide open, but it kept the conference's No. 1 seed up for grabs. By avenging their loss to the Rams in Week 11, the Seahawks took the lead in the top seed race for a moment."

However, ESPN is also projecting that the Seahawks will suffer a letdown next weekend when they visit the Carolina Panthers, losing a shootout by a score of 36-30.

While this may sound outlandish on paper, it's probably worth mentioning that the Panthers have done something similar twice already this season.

Back in early November, Carolina traveled to Green Bay to take on a Packers team that was at the top of the conference standings. They were underdogs by 13 points, but pulled off an upset despite getting just 102 yards from Bryce Young, winning 16-13 on the road on the strength of 130 yards and two touchdowns fom Rico Dowdle on the ground.

Maybe that win was a fluke and the Packers were certainly not at their best. However, the Panthers managed to do it again a couple weeks ago when they upset the top-seeded Rams, 31-28. This time they were powered by Young, who threw three touchdowns and posted a 147.1 passer rating.

So, it seems like a remote scenario - but the Seahawks would be foolish to write off Carolina as a guaranteed win. There's also a clear path to an upset, at least one side of the ball. The Panthers disguise coverages more than any other defense in the league this season, and that's something that Sam Darnold has struggled with. An untimely interception may be all it takes to swing the game.

Back to ESPN's model, they have Seattle crushing the 49ers in the season finale, 31-10. The damage has been done by this point, though. So even though this simulation has the Seahawks finishing with a 13-4 record, they go into the playoffs as the fifth seed, while the 13-4 Rams take first and the bye.

Dec 14, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike MacDonald stands on the sideline during the first quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lumen Field. | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

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