Russell Wilson predicted to sign Geno Smith type contract in free agency

There are only about a handful of NFL quarterbacks who may change teams in the coming weeks that might actually make a difference for their new clubs. Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are expected to come off the board in the top six overallpicks in the draft, then there's a huge gap down to the next tier of 2025 quarterback prospects, led by Jaxson Dart from Ole Miss.

In free agency there's also not a whole lot of name power to go around. The best option for teams this year is Sam Darnold, fresh off a breakout year with the Minnesota Vikings. Darnold is likely the only plus starter in this free agent class, though. The rest are all either career backups or on the cusp between low-end starter and legit backup.

That's where former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson finds himself after starting out hot and then flaming out with the PIttsburgh Steelers. Now about to hit the market for just the second time in his career, it should be very interesting to see what kind of offers Wilson gets - and what it says about the market's expectations for the rest of his career.

At least one analyst believes that Russ will cash in again before he's done in the NFL. Over at Pro Football Network they are predicting Wilson signs a three-year deal similar to the one Geno Smith agreed to with Seattle shortly after Wilson got the boot to Denver.

PFN on Russell Wilson's Geno Smith deal

"Given that Geno Smith essentially replaced Wilson in Seattle, it seems fitting that Wilson’s next contract should be similar to Smith’s... Based on the salary cap growth since Smith signed that deal, there will likely be a slight inflation in value, but for all intents and purposes, it should be a very similar deal.. Spotrac projects Wilson’s deal to be in the $38.5 million per year region across two seasons, using Smith, Rodgers, Stafford, and Cousins as comparables."

nfl — SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - SEPTEMBER 12: Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos greets Geno Smith #7 of the Seattle Seahawks after the game at Lumen Field on September 12, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. | (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Wilson has had his moments both in Pittsburgh and Denver, but that dollar amount seems like a lot for how much his game has fallen off over the last three years. Given how much Wilson has declined physically, the results are much more likely to look like those of Aaron Rodgers with the Jets this past season rather than what Geno Smith has been doing with the Seahawks.

So, who would actually pay Wilson this much?

The most-needy teams in the league both reside in New York, where the Jets just learned a harsh lesson about paying quarterbacks who are well past their prime. However, the Giants might just be desperate enough to give Wilson a spin. Anything more than a one-year deal would be asking for trouble, though.

The Giants should be focused exclusively on moving up in the draft order to secure Shedeur Sanders. Wilson could still be a solid backup option in that scenario - but to expect him to perform at a starter level is probably too hopeful at this point in his career.

PFN on Russell Wilson's Geno Smith deal

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