Why one PFF analyst has Seahawks QB Sam Darnold as early NFL MVP favorite

This offseason most NFL analysts believed that the Seattle Seahawks' big gamble at quarterback would blow up in their faces. Specifically, they thought the front office was taking a step backwards at the game's most important position by swapping Geno Smith for Sam Darnold.

Those analysts were wrong. Not only is Geno Smith imploding even worse than Russell Wilson when he went to Denver, Darnold is playing even better than he was last season with the Minnesota Vikings.

While the national analysts have been slow to come around and admit their mistake, some folks see a spade for a spade and are admitting Darnold is what he is: a legitimate early MVP candidate.

I’m ready to say it — Sam Darnold is my MVP through six weeks.

No QB is simultaneously making difficult throws & avoiding mistakes at the same rate as him.

🔹 7.7% big time throw rate (1st)
🔹 1.1% turnover-worthy play rate (1st)
🔹 93.7 PFF grade (1st)
🔹 0.367 EPA/play (1st) https://t.co/cPTk06KFHo pic.twitter.com/8FR5MHAFn0
— Mike Kennedy (@MikeKennedyNFL) October 13, 2025

The first two numbers alone should be enough to catapult Darnold into the MVP conversation. If a quarterback does nothing else but throw the ball well downfield and avoid making mistakes he's going to give his team a great chance to win every game regardless of what else happens on the field.

In the bargain Darnold has continued to grow his game - especially when it comes to making plays under pressure - which were the big contentious point about why many of those football pundits thought this gamble wouldn't pay off.

This was a case of recency bias. Darnold did not do well in his last two games with the Vikings, but a lot of analysts seem to have allowed those last two starts to make them completely forget that he had been performing at a top-10 level (or better) most of the season up until that point.

As we expected, Darnold has continued to thrive even without Justin Jefferson, without Kevin O'Connell and without Minnesota's offensive line. The two late turnovers are unfortunate but the signature wins will come - he's performing far too good for anything else to happen.

If the Seahawks can get a strong run game to support him and find an upgrade at right guard there will be no ceiling on what Darnold can accomplish.

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