Sobering NFL projection puts Seahawks near the bottom, Raiders on top

There are a handful of exceptions, but by and large the national media hates what the Seattle Seahawks have done this offseason. They particularly don't like the change at quarterback, which saw Seattle swap out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold - which many analysts see as a downgrade.

While we still disagree with that assessment based on what we saw from Darnold during most of the 2024 campaign - it is difficult to argue with some harsh numbers that have emerged in the wake of the big move. For example, a chart from The Athletic which shows expected points added during the offseason has Pete Carroll, Geno Smith and the Las Vegas Raiders on top at +35.8 points. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are near the bottom at -23.3.

Here's what they shared about Seattle's ranking - which came in at fifth from the bottom.

"What did you expect after they traded away their starting quarterback and a Pro Bowl-caliber wide receiver? If it’s any consolation to Seahawks fans, it’s impressive they aren’t last on this list... The model is skeptical Darnold can replicate his success from Minnesota, while Kupp and Lawrence are past their primes and have some injury concerns, so it’s no surprise the Seahawks still rank near the bottom."

Jan 13, 2025; Glendale, AZ, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) is sacked by Los Angeles Rams cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (4) during the first half in an NFC wild card game at State Farm Stadium. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The continued bad press and numbers like these do shake our confidence a little bit - but not enough to move off the belief that Darnold is an upgrade over Smith - albeit a mild one - and going from Metcalf to Cupp is more of a lateral move than the drastic step back it's being made out to be.

The other big contract the Seahawks handed out was for DeMarcus Lawrence, which seems like overkill given how loaded their defensive line is and how weak they are on the other side of the line of scrimmage, which is the real problem here.

Had the Seahawks been more aggressive trying to upgrade their NFC-worst offensive line it would be much easier to defend the overall strategy, here. Seattle got younger and cheaper at QB, picked up two high draft picks and saved a ton of cap space, all of which are good things.

However, refusing to use any of that cap space on the offensive line (especially in light of how they've drafted OL) is inexcusable. All due respect to new offensive line coach John Benton and his extensive experience at this level, it seems arrogant as hell to trot out basically the same OL group from last season and hoping that they develop into a decent unit.

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