3 Games on Texans' Schedule That Will Decide If They're True Contenders

The Houston Texans head into this next season with championship aspirations on their radar.

But while there are some high hopes for what could be on the horizon in Houston, there are going to be several tests throughout the 2026 campaign that truly tell us whether or not this group will be ready to make that jump from virtual playoff locks to one of the few teams that are capable of reaching the heights of a Super Bowl.

And on the surface, there's three games in particular that could give us some keen perspective of where the Texans stand in their chase for a Lombardi. Depending on how they perform in each, that might be the early hint of whether this could be Houston's year, or if they're still a few steps away from making those dreams come true.

With that in mind, let's sort through three of the biggest tests on the Texans' schedule that will reveal whether or not they'll be true contenders for the 2026 season:

Week 1: Bills @ Texans

Nov 20, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs with the ball as Houston Texans defensive end Danielle Hunter (55) applies defensive pressure during the second half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

A lot can change for a team between Week 1 and the end of a season. The Texans proved just that last season when they started the year off with a narrow loss to the LA Rams, then lost two more games to fall to 0-3 before rallying to a 12-5 record.

But this first game against the Buffalo Bills can act as a bit of a tone setter for how well the Texans could begin their 2026 campaign as opposed to last year, and what their offseason of improvements could look like in action.

The Texans will have a motivated Josh Allen and a Bills offense on tap looking to rebound from their Thursday night loss last season, a brand-new set of offensive personnel themselves, and a raging home crowd ready to start the year off on a higher note from what last season had to offer.

If the Texans can capitalize against a playoff-caliber team to begin their new season here, it could be the initial push needed to rattle off an early win streak that gives them an early lead in the race atop the AFC South.

Week 16: Texans @ Eagles

Dec 14, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

We now fast forward into the December part of the NFL calendar when the playoff stakes start rising. It's also when the competition on the Texans' schedule starts to take a drastic turn, starting with a tough matchup on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles on Christmas Eve.

The setting of being in cold-weather Philadelphia is tough enough for the Texans to deal with. The talent that the Eagles will be boasting on both sides of the ball adds to that challenge even further.

Between an offense that still has a high-end offensive line with an elite talent in the backfield like Saquon Barkley, and a defense with star talent all over the field, this will be a game with playoff-level intensity, energy, and talent for both sides.

If the Texans can walk out of this one with a win in their back pocket, it'll be really tough to keep Houston out of the short list of Super Bowl contenders to keep an eye on. That'll be especially so, depending on where they stand in the AFC standings at this point.

Week 17: Texans @ Packers

Nov 23, 2025; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers defensive end Micah Parsons (1) celebrates following a sack during the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Just one week following the Texans' holiday showing against the Eagles, they'll have a mini-bye to take in before traveling on the road once again to another challenging cold-weather environment against the Green Bay Packers.

The Packers might not be loaded with talent around the ball like the Eagles project. But they're certainly well within the hunt to be a playoff roster.

They've got strong quarterback play behind Jordan Love, a solid defense that'll likely have Micah Parsons back to full strength from his ACL injury, and behind a home crowd at Lambeau in December, the road to victory becomes even tougher.

Adding onto the Texans' difficulty in this one, they've historically struggled against the Packers' franchise–– similarly to their woes against the Eagles. Houston is 1-5 all time against Green Bay, having failed to log a victory against them dating back to December of 2008.

Now 18 years later, the Texans will try to rid themselves of those Green Bay demons. And if they do, it'll further bolster their hype as a team to watch within the Super Bowl bubble.

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