Texans' C.J. Stroud Faces Long Odds in MVP Race at Midseason Mark

The first half of the Houston Texans' 2026 season has been filled with some really solid play from quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Stroud is throwing for a career-high 281.4 yards per game on a 64.2% completion rate, along with a 16-2 TD-to-INT ratio. He has the sixth-best passer rating in the NFL at 104.8 and is one of five quarterbacks in the NFL to have thrown two or fewer picks on the season (min. 5 GP).

It's gotten to the point for Stroud where, if he keeps up this same level of production, there might be real questions around whether or not he could enter some MVP discussions as we get deeper and deeper into the season.

However, when looking at his odds heading into Week 10, there's certainly some more work to do before Stroud is considered anything close to true MVP consideration, let alone being a frontrunner for the award.

What C.J. Stroud's MVP Odds Look Like at Week 10

According to odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, Stroud is currently tied for the eighth-best odds at taking home this year's MVP award (+6000) right alongside Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Seven other quarterbacks find themselves ahead of Stroud's own odds: including Caleb Williams (+5000), Kirk Cousins (+4000), Jordan Love (+750), Trevor Lawrence (+550), Brock Purdy (+550), Josh Allen (+370), and the current frontrunner for the award, Joe Burrow (+145).

It's some pretty nice company for Stroud to be surrounded by. And at the very least, being within those MVP discussions in any capacity is great for his stock this offseason when he's set to hit the negotiation table for his next contract.

Nov 8, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks to throw against the Los Angeles Chargers during the third quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

However, if Stroud really wants to make a push for that MVP trophy this year–– rather than simply just be in the talks for it–– it's going to take a really dedicated effort over the second half of the schedule to make it happen.

And really, a lot of Stroud's chances simply come down to team record.

How C.J. Stroud Can Make a Stronger MVP Case

At 3-5 for a Texans team that's currently out of the postseason picture, it's really hard to consider the signal-caller of that offense a true MVP candidate, at least at this point in the year.

Now, could the Texans stack up a few wins and change the narrative just a bit? Most definitely. With nine games left on the regular season schedule and several winnable games ahead for Houston, getting onto the right side of .500 can be within arm’s reach in no time.

But Stroud will need to continue playing at an elite level throughout that timeframe while the Texans are stacking up multiple wins; a task that's been much easier said than done through the first eight games of the year.

At the very least, Stroud deserves to remain on the MVP radar for as long as the Texans still have a fighting chance in the regular season. And if Houston climbs into the playoffs with a 12-5 or 11-6 record on the back of his production, it'll be hard to completely disregard him for the discussion.

So right now, Stroud might be falling a bit behind in the race. But give it a few more weeks, and things might shift for the better to potentially put him within reach of being the Texans' first-ever MVP in franchise history.

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