Albert Breer on Chiefs’ Help, Trading Up For Ty Simpson, Bengals Draft Needs

All right.

Welcome in everybody.

It is the Brew Report for Wednesday, April 15th.

Happy Tax Day.

It is a mailbag edition of the Brew Report.

As always, you can get more answers to more of your questions and more detailed answers at the MMQB.

com.

But as always, we're gonna answer three of your questions right here, right.

Now.

And the first question comes from KC Chiefs junkie, that's at KC Chiefs Junkie on X.

Thoughts on Kansas City standing pat at 9, but making a big move up from 29 and 40, targeting someone in the teens, try to land two instant impact players with their first two picks.

Uh, Chiefs junkie, I would not totally rule it out.

I would just say based on where they are.

And based on where they are going forward, I think the more likely scenario would actually be a trade down and an attempt to continue to accumulate picks .

And here's the reason why.

Where they are from a cap standpoint, and where they are going to be from a cap standpoint going forward is a place where they're gonna need to continue to fill holes with affordable talent.

And the way you accumulate affordable talent is by accumulating picks.

In other words, if you have 7 picks, you may hope to get 3 starters.

If you have 12 picks, maybe there's a chance you get 5 stars.

Now, all of that obviously is relative to where those picks are.

But you're really looking to build up the guts of your roster because you know that you're not gonna be able to spend on a 3rd receiver, the way some other teams might.

You know, you're not gonna be able to spend on a nickel pass rusher , the way some other teams might be able to.

You know, you're probably not gonna be able to spend on your 2nd safety, the way, the way another team might be able to.

And so, to illustrate that, I wrote down some of the The Top cap numbers for the Chiefs for this year.

And Chris Jones is at $44.

8 million Patrick Mahomes at $39.

7 million Trey Smith at 24.5 million, Nick Bolton at 19.

25%, Jalen Moore at $18.

685 million Creed Humphrey at 18.

1%, George Kar Loftus at 15.

15%.

You have other guys that have lower cap number.

Numbers, Kenneth Walker, Travis Kelsey, where that money is pushed off into the future.

This is the reality of where the Chiefs are and where they've been for quite some time.

And if you remember 4 years ago when they traded Tyreek Hill, they went on, they, they were in the middle of a little bit of a heater from a draft perspective, which allowed them to keep other players on their roster.

And so they had guys like Trey Smith, like Nick Bolton.

Um, like Creed Humphrey, like George Car Loftus, like Trent McDuffie, who they just traded on their, on their roster on rookie contracts.

And essentially what they're looking to do now is reset in that sort of way.

And so now, you know, instead of those guys on rookie contracts, you've got a number of those guys who are on big second contracts.

So you're looking to backfill.

That's the whole building model.

That, that Andy Reid and Brett Veach have set up.

And so, it's important that you get those picks right, and it may be more important that you accumulate good players than get one great player.

Now, of course, they're looking for somebody who can be a real difference maker for them at 9 because they're not gonna be drafted in the top 10 very, very often with Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback.

So, that pick there is very, very important.

But with 29, with 40, with picks later on, you're looking to accumulate talent, you're looking for starters, you're looking for guys who can fill roles for you that are important roles, but you can't afford to spend on because of the situation that you're in with how top-heavy your cap is.

It's just the situation that they're in.

It's the situation they're gonna continue to be in as long as Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback.

This is how you have to build.

And so I see the Chiefs.

It's probably more likely to trade down with some of the picks that they have than trade up.

Um, doesn't mean they couldn't make a short trade up to go and get somebody.

Um, they, of course , did that a couple of years ago and trading up to get Xavier Worthy, so I certainly could see those sorts of moves from Brett Veach.

But as far as like, just Compromising the number of picks that they have to make some massive swing.

I think they probably won't do something like that.

Question number 2 from Eric Klein, uh, PhDS at Doctor Eric Klein, uh, frequent contributor to the mailbag.

He asks for keeping needy teams like the Cardinals or Jets, if they like Ty Simpson.

Is the 5th-year option worth trading back into the end of the 1st round for or is early 2nd round the better value?

Um, Eric, I would say, in the case of both those teams, I would actually sit tight and take them in the 2nd round.

Um, if that's the way you look at it.

Here's the reason why.

I think with your ownership, taking a quarterback in the 1st round, basically takes you off the market for a quarterback the next year and going forward.

And we've actually seen teams in the past take quarterbacks in the 2nd round and then turn around and take one in the 1st round the next year.

A great example of it , um, was about 1516 years ago in 2010, the Panthers took Jimmy Clawson, um, right there at the top of the 2nd round, and then came back the next year and took Cam Newton first overall.

Take a quarterback in the 2nd or 3rd round, that's a swing.

And so you could come back the next year and take a quarterback the next year.

If you take a quarterback in the 2nd round here, if you're the Cardinals or you're the Jets, then I don't think there's anything stopping you from going back into what should be a quarterback-rich draft next year and taking your guy in the top 10 or 15 picks if you aren't sold on what you see from Simpson as a rookie.

And so that's the way I would look at it as if I was the Cardinals or Jets.

That's also colored by what I've heard from teams.

This Ty Simpson thing, I'm sort of on Ty Simpson where I was with Shadoor Sanders last year where a lot of people were talking about Shado Sanders like he was a first-round pick.

And I remember saying like, I just can't find teams that view Shado as a first-round pick.

I sort of feel the same way as on Ty Simpson.

A lot of teams think he's a good player.

He's got good tape.

Um, there's no question about that.

You see more things that translate to the NFL from Ty Simpson on tape than you see from Fernando Mendoza.

The question is the physical traits.

Um, the question is the amount of experience that he has.

He only started 15 games at Alabama, and so I think the likelihood is he goes somewhere on day two, and like, if that's the case, if he winds up being there in the 2nd round, and you're a team picking somewhere, you know, in the top half of the 2nd round, you could take a swing on him, see if it works out, and if it doesn't, you go right back into the draft next year, and you're looking at a class that's gonna have names like Dante Moore, Arch Manning, Julian Say, Lenori Sellers, all those guys in it.

Uh, question number 3, this is from Damon Martin, that's at Damon Martin.

We all know the Bengals are never gonna trade up, so is the number 10 pick basically just the best defensive player available.

Caleb Downs remains a dream pick, but it's hard to gauge what the team is thinking.

Um, Damon, I would agree.

Um, there's one caveat, if Jeremiah Love somehow falls to them, maybe you have a hard time passing on Jeremiah Love.

I don't think he's gonna fall that far, so I think the point is moot on that, but Um, yeah, that would be the one caveat is if there's some sort of outlier that makes it to them, maybe they think about it, but I'm with you.

Um, you know, I think that Caleb Downs would be somebody they would look at.

I think they would look at both the corners too.

Um, the top two corners, um, you know, Mansour Delane from LSU and Jamad McCoy from Tennessee.

McCoy, there's still some concern on his knee.

Um, so that's gonna be more of a factor for some teams than others and maybe makes them fall a little bit.

Um, but I think McCoy and Delane would be, um, guys that they would look at at 10.

I think Ruben Bains is a guy that they would look at 10.

I think Caleb Downs is a guy they would look at at 10.

I think they need defensive help.

And so my guess would be that they do what you're saying they're probably gonna do is just take a defensive player they're 10 and 10 overall, presuming that there's not some sort of outlier that falls to them.

When they are picking.

Appreciate you guys coming out as always.

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We got one more Breer report coming for you this week.

That'll be on Friday.

Appreciate you guys coming out.

We'll see you guys then.