Where Did Everybody Go Wrong in Projecting Dillon Thieneman to the Vikings?

It was almost comical how many mock drafts had picked Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 18 in the days, weeks, and months leading up to Thursday night's first round.

Perhaps the only other player more commonly picked to one team was Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1. Yet Roger Goodell took the stage Thursday night and announced that the Vikings were taking Florida DT Caleb Banks with the No. 18 overall pick, surprising no shortage of draft "experts."

The "reach" caught many off guard as it was widely expected by the draft analysts that safety would be the pick for Minnesota given the uncertainty over Harrison Smith's future in the game. But even after Banks was picked, Thieneman and another highly touted safety, Toledo's Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, kept falling and falling and falling and falling.

Thieneman was finally plucked off the board at No. 25 by the Chicago Bears. McNeil-Warren is still available heading into Friday night.

So, what happened?

In recent years mock drafters have seemingly overvalued where safeties could go, compared to how teams actually value the position in the draft. Or as Purple Insider's Matthew Coller put it last night: "Safeties are a lie."

"They're just a lie," Coller said during Purple Insider's draft coverage. "They are a media creation. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Dillon Thieneman, Caleb Downs. 'This is the best safety class. These guys are going number two overall (Downs) Number 18 overall (Thieneman). Number whatever,' some people had top 15 for McNeil-Warren. The NFL does care about safeties. They truly don't when it comes to the draft. It never, ever, pays when it comes to the draft, bets on the safety position. It's actually kind of remarkable."

Downs was projected by most draft experts as a top 5 to top 10 pick. Todd McShay had Downs as the No. 5 overall prospect in the draft. Mel Kiper ranked Downs at No. 6. Daniel Jeremiah has Downs at No. 8. According to Mock Draft Database, the Commanders at No. 7 was the consensus mock pick for Downs. He fell to the Cowboys at No. 11, who traded up one pick to grab the Ohio State prospect.

Thieneman had No. 15 (McShay), No. 16 (Jeremiah), and No. 18 (Kiper) Big Board rankings. He was near unanimously slotted in by many mocks throughout the draft process as the Vikings' pick at No. 18. He fell seven spots to No. 25.

McNeil-Warren had a wider range, with Daniel Jeremiah rating him as the No. 15 prospect in the class, while Kiper (No. 33) and McShay (No. 34) were a little more reserved. His consensus mock pick before the draft was to the Bears at No. 25, who took advantage of Thieneman's drop.

This isn't the first time the so-called experts overestimated a safety's value. Last year, South Carolina's Nick Emmanwori was a consensus pick to the Vikings at No. 24. He ended up going in the second round to the Seahawks. In 2023, Brian Branch was a consensus first-round pick, he ended up falling to deep in the second round, with the Lions selecting him at No. 45, a full 20 picks lower than his consensus mock position.

Vikings fans will remember Kyler Hamilton as the one that got away. He was a consensus top-10 pick when the Vikings traded out of the No. 12 spot. Hamilton went to Baltimore at No. 14.

NFL teams have realized over the past several years that you can find good-to-great safeties lower in the first or even second round. Emmanwori was a monster for Seattle on their run to the Super Bowl. Former Gopher Antoine Winfield Jr. has turned into a perennial All-Pro and one of the best safeties in the game. He was pick No. 45 in the in 2020 NFL Draft by the Bucs.

Once again on Thursday night, draft experts overvalued the safety position, despite numerous years of recent history showing teams would rather go elsewhere in the first round. We've been told it's a deep safety class throughout the process, and the Vikings have three more picks in the top 100.

Banks was arguably a reach at No. 18. However, if there is a deep well of safety talent that Minnesota will be in position to grab in the mid-rounds, it makes sense they would elect to pass on the first round talent with other positions of need available.

Defensive tackle was a massive area of need heading into the weekend after Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen left in free agency. Whether you like the pick or not, Minnesota addressed arguably their biggest area of need and left themselves options to get a safety later.

But it wasn't just on Thieneman that the mock drafters went wrong. There were also suggestions that the Vikings could take Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq, with ESPN insider Matt Miller saying he "heard the team will target players with higher college production over potential or traits."

As it turned out, Sadiq was taken by the New York Jets at 16, but the selection of Banks was absolutely about "potential or traits" over higher college production.

It just goes to show that for all the speculation and educated predictions, for the most part the experts don't really know what's coming on Draft Night.

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