2026 World Cup Projected Bracket: USMNT Eyeing Deep Run After First Week of Games

The best game of the tournament on July 4, a showdown between Messi and Ronaldo and history repeating itself for the USMNT is all on the cards.

The regular sized World Cup trophy will be on offer this summer. | MB Media/Getty Images

Judging a team’s quality by one 90-minute performance is like coming to an opinion about a pointillism painting after only looking at a single dot.

However, soccer has never been a sport blessed with a penchant for perspective—just ask Sabri Lamouchi.

Now that every team has belatedly gotten its long awaited campaign underway, or ended it in the case of Tunisia’s luckless manager, there is at least some sense of how the tournament could shake out from here on in.

Using a combination of judgement, guesswork and the ever expanding array of supercomputers, here’s a foolhardy attempt at taming the mercurial beast of World Cup predictions.

Jump to:

1. Group Stage
2. Round of 32
3. Round of 16
4. Quarterfinals
5. Semifinals
6. Final

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Group Stage

Winners and runners-up

When the USMNT play like they did against Paraguay, Mauricio Pochettino’s wild positivity doesn’t come across as entirely deranged. | Katelyn Mulcahy/FIFA/Getty Images

Group	Projected Winner	Projected Runner-up
A	Mexico	South Korea
B	Switzerland	Canada
C	Morocco	Brazil
D	USMNT	Australia
E	Germany	Côte d’Ivoire
F	Japan	Netherlands
G	Belgium	Egypt
H	Spain	Uruguay
I	France	Norway
J	Argentina	Austria
K	Portugal	Colombia
L	England	Croatia

“Maybe at the start you’ll have some boring matches or too many goals in a one-sided game,” Uzbekistan boss Fabio Cannavaro warned when reflecting on the expanded nature of this 48-team World Cup. That prediction has largely fallen flat. Not only have there been few drab affairs, but some of the supposed minnows have managed to emphatically punch above their weight.

Switzerland, Spain and Portugal were all held to frustrating draws by Qatar, Cabo Verde and DR Congo respectively. Even Curaçao kept Germany level at 1–1 for 17 glorious minutes.

While it may be a bit premature to discount any of the traditional giants after one scratchy showing, Türkiye was one of the major disappointments. Vincenzo Montella’s side had been billed as one of the dark horses for the tournament and certainly appeared to consider themselves superior to Australia, who promptly made a mockery of Hakan Çalhanoğlu’s public insistence that Türkiye was “more talented” than the Socceroos.

Brazil was another nation to disappoint, putting in a desperately underwhelming display against Morocco which left Carlo Ancelotti to surmise: “The team was anxious and there were nerves all over the place.” Should the Seleção remain as skittish against Haiti and Scotland, there is every chance that the controversial AFCON champion finishes above them in Group C.

Ronald Koeman took an astute conclusion from the Netherlands’ entertaining 2–2 draw with Japan: the hype is real. “You think that Japan’s strength was over-exaggerated before the match?” the Dutch boss scoffed. “Let’s wait until the end of the World Cup to see who’s right.” By the end of the group stage, the Samurai Blue could have proven its worth with a top spot finish.

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Best third-place teams

Scotland got a win on its return to the World Cup. | Adam Hunger/Getty Images.

Group	Team
A	Czechia
B	Bosnia and Herzegovina
C	Scotland
E	Ecuador
F	Sweden
I	Senegal
J	Algeria
L	Ghana

The devilish aspect to this World Cup format is trying to decipher which eight of the 12 third-place teams will find a way through to the round of 32. Not only is it a fool’s errand, but it has major repercussions for the entire knockout stages.

Nevertheless, some sides performed admirably enough to suggest they would progress. Sweden notably thumped Tunisia, racking up a 5–1 win which may very well be enough to guarantee progress even if Graham Potter’s side is expected to be picked apart by the Netherlands and Japan.

Ecuador and Senegal were also impressive in competitive defeats while there is hope that Scotland can end its curse of group-stage exits. The local bars will certainly be rooting for the Tartan Army.

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Eliminated teams

South Africa was no match for Mexico. | Yuri CORTEZ/AFP/Getty Images

Group	Team	Position
A	South Africa	Fourth
B	Qatar	Fourth
C	Haiti	Fourth
D	Paraguay	Third
D	Türkiye	Fourth
E	Curaçao	Fourth
F	Tunisia	Fourth
G	Iran	Third
G	New Zealand	Fourth
H	Saudi Arabia	Third
H	Cabo Verde	Fourth
I	Iraq	Fourth
J	Jordan	Fourth
K	DR Congo	Third
K	Uzbekistan	Fourth
L	Panama	Fourth

Even if South Africa can keep 11 (or maybe even 10) players on the pitch, Hugo Broos’s side will be heading nowhere but home if it continues to play with such a self-destructive streak. It would be an incredible feat for Hervé Renard to lead this ramshackle Tunisia team out of the group stage on such short notice, but it may be a feat even beyond the white-shirted miracle worker.

Panama’s best hope of salvation was snatched away by Caleb Yirenkyi’s 95th-minute winner for Ghana while Jordan’s legion of fans woke up early to see their side beaten by Austria—a fate which may yet follow them in matches against Algeria and Argentina.

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Round of 32

USMNT Favorites to Advance

The USMNT will look to bring equivalent electricity to the knockouts. | Alex Livesey/FIFA/Getty Images

After spending so much of the buildup to the tournament lauding his side’s chances, Mauricio Pochettino preached caution after a thumping opening night win over Paraguay.

Should the USMNT advance as expected from atop the Group D standings, the Stars and Stripes would be paired with a third-place opponent from one of Groups B, E, F, I or J. In this particular scenario, it would be Group B’s Bosnia and Herzegovina, who are ranked 48 places below the U.S. in FIFA’s global standings.

One of the other notable potential matchups could pit Argentina against Uruguay in a repeat of the first-ever World Cup final. Marcelo Bielsa led his current employer to a memorable victory over the country of his birth in qualification, but this iteration of Uruguay would be a major underdog this time around—especially if Lionel Messi continues to roll back the years.

Date	Fixture	Venue
June 28, 2026	South Korea vs. Canada	SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
June 29, 2026	Morocco vs. Netherlands	NRG Stadium, Houston
June 29, 2026	Germany vs. Scotland	Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
June 29, 2026	Japan vs. Brazil	Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
June 30, 2026	Côte d’Ivoire vs. Norway	AT&T Stadium, Arlington
June 30, 2026	France vs. Sweden	MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
June 30, 2026	Mexico vs. Ecuador	Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
July 1, 2026	England vs. Senegal	Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
July 1, 2026	Belgium vs. Czechia	Lumen Field, Seattle
July 1, 2026	USMNT vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina	Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
July 2, 2026	Spain vs. Austria	SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
July 2, 2026	Colombia vs. Croatia	BMO Field, Toronto
July 2, 2026	Switzerland vs. Algeria	BC Place, Vancouver
July 3, 2026	Australia vs. Egypt	AT&T Stadium, Arlington
July 3, 2026	Argentina vs. Uruguay	Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
July 3, 2026	Portugal vs. Ghana	Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

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Round of 16

Ring Fourth of July in Red

France must bottle its second-half performance. | Shaun Botterill/FIFA/Getty Images

The marquee matchup of the round of 16 could very well be a fixture fit for the final: Germany is in line to duke it out with France in Philadelphia on July 4.

The Independence Day clash will be one to watch, as both sides are blessed with an abundance of attacking mastery. France, however, can also lay claim to two of the best center backs on the planet, offering a blend of grace and gusto which helps explain why Didier Deschamps’s side are so many people’s favorite—even if the manager himself is backing Spain.

Pochettino naturally favors the U.S. and could fancy his side’s chances of getting all the way to the quarterfinals if a meeting with Belgium in Seattle does materialize. The two nations famously met at this stage of the 2014 World Cup, with the Europeans advancing despite a heroic display from goalkeeper Tim Howard.

Yet, while that iteration of the USMNT has been completely erased—Clint Dempsey led the line of a side managed by Jürgen Klinsmann, for context—Belgium is remarkably familiar. This is no longer Belgium’s so-called ‘Golden Generation,’ but there are certainly a lot of the same players; Thibaut Courtois, Axel Witsel, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku were all called up this summer after featuring in Brazil 12 years ago.

Date	Fixture	Venue
July 4, 2026	Canada vs. Brazil	NRG Stadium, Houston
July 4, 2026	Germany vs. France	Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
July 5, 2026	Netherlands vs. Norway	MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
July 5, 2026	Mexico vs. England	Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
July 6, 2026	Colombia vs. Spain	AT&T Stadium, Arlington
July 6, 2026	USMNT vs. Belgium	Lumen Field, Seattle
July 7, 2026	Argentina vs. Egypt	Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
July 7, 2026	Switzerland vs. Portugal	BC Place, Vancouver

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Quarterfinals

Messi vs. Ronaldo

Lionel Messi continues to add goals his World Cup legacy. | Steph Chambers/FIFA/Getty Images

There have been almost 1,000 matches in the history of the men’s World Cup, but never before has one included two players with the individual star power of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. The Argentine icon made a strong case to justify the top billing he continues to inspire while Ronaldo did precisely the opposite.

Nevertheless, should both Argentina and Portugal top their respective groups, they are on a crash-course to face each other in Kansas City in the quarterfinals. No prizes for guessing the narrative everyone picks for that game.

The USMNT could also theoretically take on Spain at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles but a bout with the defending European champion may be where Pochettino’s summer of soccer comes to an end.

Date	Fixture	Venue
July 9, 2026	France vs. Brazil	Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
July 10, 2026	Spain vs. USMNT	SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
July 11, 2026	Netherlands vs. England	Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
July 11, 2026	Argentina vs. Portugal	Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

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Semifinals

France vs. Spain

Spain’s performance against Cabo Verde was remarkably uninspiring. | Andrew J. Clark/ISI Photos/ISI Photos/Getty Images

The seeded nature of the draw—one of the many new developments FIFA have implemented this summer to a sport which has largely gone unchanged for 150 years—ensures that the top four seeds are kept apart until the semifinals (if they win their groups).

Spain’s goalless draw with Cabo Verde was almost a caricature of its worst self: all possession, no penetration, which brought to mind the line from former France World Cup winner Bixente Lizarazu: “Spain’s football is like love without the sex.”

Lamine Yamal offers that spark and should be fully fit by the knockout stages. France, themself, is spoiled for choice when it comes to difference-makers, setting up a devilish matchup in Arlington, Texas on July 14.

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England vs. Argentina

England hasn’t won the World Cup since 1966. | Richard Pelham/Getty Images

One of the most bitter rivalries in international soccer could be given its grandest stage yet. David Beckham completed his redemption arc against Argentina in the group stage of 2002 after getting sent off in the round of 16 four years earlier. It was the quarterfinal which Diego Maradona lit up in 1986.

Should Argentina and England follow the preordained path of progress—a prediction which a pair of opening wins did little to undermine—they would be paired in the second semifinal at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium on July 15. If any of the previous encounters are anything to go by, expect a sharpened edge to proceedings.

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Final

France vs. Argentina

Kylian Mbappé opened his 2026 World Cup account at the first opportunity. | Shaun Botterill/FIFA/Getty Images

Only once before in World Cup history has there been consecutive finals been between the same two nations.

Argentina duked out an entertaining clash with West Germany in 1986, giving up a 2–0 lead before winning the final again with a defense-splitting pass from Maradona, but the 1990 showpiece emphatically fell flat. Andreas Brehme’s 85th-minute penalty was the only goal in a painfully bleak contest conquered by the defeated side from four years earlier.

While the neutrals would be praying for a contest even half as exciting as the 3–3 ding-dong Argentina and France played out in Qatar, Les Bleus would presumably accept a slog if it ended in glory, rather than glorious failure.

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