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2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: SI Experts Predict Every Result
“It will depend on small details,” Qatar manager Julen Lopetegui fretted when tasked with trying to predict a winner for the 2026 World Cup, “the bounce of the ball.”
Soccer is unpredictable by its very nature. A sport played with a round ball and the blunt instrument of the human foot is inherently beholden to the fickle fates of fortune.
This year’s quarterfinals neatly pits four former World Cup winners against a quartet chasing their first global trophy. There should be a clear favorite for each tie, but this tournament has already proven how flimsy preconceived conceptions of international hierarchy can be in this wonderfully mysterious sport.
Bear all that in mind when casting your eye over Sports Illustrated’s best attempts at a prediction for each World Cup quarterfinal.
France vs. Morocco
- James Cormack: France 2–1 Morocco
- Andrew Headspeath: France 2–1 Morocco (AET)
- Ewan Ross-Murray: France 2–1 Morocco
- Jamie Spencer: France 2–1 Morocco
- Grey Whitebloom: France 1–0 Morocco
For all the qualities of this evolved iteration of Morocco, it just seems like this outstanding France team is primed for another run to the final. —James Cormack
Mohamed Ouahbi’s preference for zippy, in-your-face soccer has elevated Morocco to one of the world’s best teams. It’s just that France probably is the best team. —Andrew Headspeath
A repeat of the 2022 World Cup semifinal promises sparks. Morocco, as we’ve seen many times already, will fight fire with fire under the more progressive Ouahbi, but France’s myriad of attacking superstars should get the job done. —Ewan Ross-Murray
It’s difficult to look past a France side that has a virtually unbreakable defense and world class options all across the frontline. —Jamie Spencer
Moroccan fans could be forgiven for echoing Erling Haaland’s thoughts before Norway’s encounter with Les Bleus in the group stage: “They’re probably going to win against us, they’re probably going to win the whole tournament.” —Grey Whitebloom
Spain vs. Belgium
- James Cormack: Spain 2–0 Belgium
- Andrew Headspeath: Spain 2–0 Belgium
- Ewan Ross-Murray: Spain 2–0 Belgium
- Jamie Spencer: Spain 1–0 Belgium
- Grey Whitebloom: Spain 3–0 Belgium
Mikel Merino’s stoppage-time winner against Portugal highlighted Spain’s strength in depth, and it would seem as though they’re on a crash course to meet France in the last four. —J.C.
For Belgium, even another FIFA intervention probably wouldn’t provide the level of motivation needed to conjure up a win. —A.H.
It’s a miracle Belgium has made it this far. Spain hasn’t been anywhere near its European Championship-winning level just yet, but La Roja should still saunter into the semifinal relatively comfortably. —E.R.M.
A one-sided win over the USMNT doesn’t hide the fact that this version of Belgium is not a patch on the country’s 2018 peak. —J.S.
Spain has conceded five shots on target this entire tournament. Belgium will do well to even test Unai Simon. —G.W.
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Norway vs. England
- James Cormack: Norway 0–2 England
- Andrew Headspeath: Norway 1–2 England
- Ewan Ross-Murray: Norway 2–3 England (AET)
- Jamie Spencer: Norway 2–2 England (England on penalties)
- Grey Whitebloom: Norway 2–3 England
The combination of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham outweighs Erling Haaland’s solo genius. —J.C.
Clean sheets seem borderline impossible here, so it will come down to who has the greatest firepower. England's superior support for its superstar striker and Thomas Tuchel’s tactical acumen may prove the edge. —A.H.
When not greeted with stubborn low blocks, England has played out two high-scoring thrillers against Croatia and Mexico. More such chaos appears inevitable when matched with Haaland and Co., who are riding the ultimate wave of positivity after dumping out Brazil. —E.R.M.
That England might have preferred to face Brazil says a lot about what Norway has to offer in 2026. Still, there are goals to be scored against a team yet to keep a clean sheet in the tournament and Harry Kane is equally chasing a Golden Boot of his own. —J.S.
Haaland rated Norway’s chances of winning the World Cup at “0.5%” last summer. The odds of beating England are much higher, but would still represent a shock. —G.W.
Argentina vs. Switzerland
- James Cormack: Argentina 2–2 Switzerland (Argentina on penalties)
- Andrew Headspeath: Argentina 1–1 Switzerland (Argentina on penalties)
- Ewan Ross-Murray: Argentina 2–1 Switzerland
- Jamie Spencer: Argentina 0–2 Switzerland
- Grey Whitebloom: Argentina 3–3 Switzerland (Argentina on penalties)
The world champion defy logic and reason. Argentina sacrifice width and thrive in chaos, relying on the glint in Lionel Messi’s eye. By contrast, there’s a comforting familiarity to Switzerland. You know what they are and they are not World Cup semifinalists. —J.C.
Is Argentina inevitable or faltering? Who knows anymore? Lionel Scaloni’s side is the heavy favorite to progress, but doing things the easy way doesn’t seem to be La Albiceleste’s priority. —A.H.
This clearly isn’t the same Argentina which won the 2022 World Cup—despite its team being practically identical—but its unity and sheer desire to win should be enough to progress. —E.R.M.
A much more comfortable run of opponents than most hasn’t actually served Argentina well in this World Cup. Switzerland is functional, organized and, as long as it doesn’t repeat the profligacy of the group stage, could finally do what the others didn’t quite. —J.S.
Argentina seems destined for the semifinals. Although, if you were to ask Egypt, that would be the case regardless of the opponent. —G.W.
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Grey Whitebloom is an Associate Editor for SI FC. He has more than half a decade of experience in sports media across all its various guises, from the fast-paced demands of news articles and match reports to in-depth research required for features. Whitebloom graduated with a First Class Honours from University College London and found himself named on the Dean’s List—which, despite his initial fears, was a form of praise rather than a punishment. He specialises in the Premier League and Champions League, while also boasting an extensive track record of La Liga coverage.
Ewan Ross-Murray is a soccer writer for SI FC. He boasts years of experience following his First Class Honours in Journalism from the University of Leicester, producing a variety of content from match reports and news pieces to more extensive features on an array of topics. With Scottish, Welsh and English heritage, Ross-Murray’s soccer influences are far-ranging, but his primary focus is on the Premier League and Champions League.
James Cormack is a writer for SI FC. Opting against a football coaching undergraduate degree at the last minute, he instead decided to take on a six-month internship with 90min in 2019 and hasn't looked back. Cormack's current SEO focus means he tends to venture to the land of match previews and predicted lineups, but he also has a wealth of experience in news and feature writing. A passion for soccer's history and the European game often takes his work beyond the familiarity of the Premier League, but it's with Tottenham Hotspur where his strongest allegiance lies.
Jamie Spencer is a writer and editor for SI FC. Jamie grew up in Manchester, England, in the 1990s and fell in love with the game at the same time as the Premier League was taking off. With more than a decade of experience behind him in sports media, he specializes in Manchester United and the overall Premier League, still living in England’s north-west soccer hotbed. Jamie is also an expert on the women’s game and enjoys old school nostalgia, telling stories from soccer’s rich history and culture.
Andy Headspeath is a Real Madrid correspondent for Sports Illustrated FC. Originally from the UK, the weather, culture and soccer lured him to Spain over a decade ago where he lives with his wife, son and two untrainable dogs. A player of unspeakably limited talents and only one fully functional knee, he has more than a decade's experience in a wide variety of editorial roles within sports media, from match reporting to in-depth feature writing and interviews. He specializes in soccer history and culture, as well as—of course—La Liga.