Drab Australia and Paraguay Display Puts USMNT Credentials into Context

USMNT optimism took a hit in the defeat to Türkiye, while a closer examination of Australia and Paraguay has observers reining in USMNT expectations slightly.

The USMNT needs to regain its momentum after a disappointing end to the group stage. | Fran Santiago/Getty Images

SANTA CLARA, Calif.—Much is made about the romantic idea that the World Cup is more than just a soccer tournament, that it’s an event that unites people by transcending geographic borders, language barriers and cultural differences.

Which is why it made sense that in a parking lot outside of San Francisco Bay Area (nee Levi’s) Stadium Thursday night, a horde of Paraguayans were dancing to “Highway to Hell” alongside a large group of Aussies who were tossing inflatable kangaroos (yellow, with green boxing gloves) in the air. Nothing brings people who live 8,000 miles away from each other together like a mutual love of toy marsupials and AC/DC. And beer. Definitely beer.

The fans had at least one other thing in common: They saw their respective teams get handled rather easily by the U.S. (and beat Türkiye) earlier in group play. So seeing the sides together on the pitch in the group finale offers a chance to give a little more context to those two U.S. victories.

Now, before we get started, it has to be acknowledged that both teams knew coming in that a draw would give Australia a spot in the round of 32 and all but guarantee Paraguay a berth as well. So neither country had incentive to risk much—and they rarely did in a listless 0–0 draw. But the difference between second and third is not insignificant. The Socceroos will now have a week off before their next game, at worst against a lackluster Belgium side. La Albirroja, on the other hand, will almost certainly get Germany on Monday—after they fly across the country to Boston.

A Draw Suited Both Australia and Paraguay

It was honors even in a bruising encounter between Australia and Paraguay. | Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

The main takeaway is simple: The U.S. won a scrappy group. A very scrappy group. After the game, Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro insisted, “I told my players we didn’t come here for a draw,” a statement that didn’t exactly do him any favors. (Had he said, “We were totally looking for one point,” he could have at least claimed to have gotten the job done.) Taking Alfaro at his word, it’s hard to fathom that his team reached the crucial four-point mark. After getting rolled by the U.S., they were dominated by Türkiye. Sure, Paraguay’s Miguel Almirón was sent off just before halftime, but even with 11 men on the pitch, they was dodging bullets left and right. In the first 45 minutes, Türkiye had eight chances to Paraguay’s two.

What the fans in Santa Clara would have given for that kind of show. Instead they saw Paraguay take one shot (off-target, natch) in the first half. After the break, Alfaro brought on Mauricio, the electric attacker born in Brazil who scored as a sub against the U.S. Again he made an impact, temporarily injecting a little life into the Paraguayan attack. And then ... nothing. Starting in the 50th minute, La Albirroja went more than half an hour without attempting a shot. The most impressive feat by a Paraguayan in that stretch was the fan who chugged Michelob Ultra out of a sneaker on the video screen during the hydration break.

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Like his counterpart, Australia coach Tony Popovic scoffed at the idea that he came into the match simply looking for one point. “You can have opinions on how the game was played or what we thought we both needed,” he said. “But we at no stage felt like we were playing for a draw. I thought we controlled the game quite well and had the better opportunities. We tried to win the game.”

They came close a few times—especially down the right flank, where Jordy Bos and Cristian Volpato gave Paraguay fits all night. But big moments in the final third were few and far between, while the action in the middle of the field featured more hitting than an NHL All-Star Game. “It was two physical teams,” said midfielder Aiden O’Neill after the game. “I think quite a few of us have been hit in the head. I got smashed in the head in the first 10 seconds or so.”

What Did We Learn About the USMNT From This Game?

The USMNT made light work of two goal-shy opponents in Paraguay and Australia. | Kohjiro Kinno/Sports Illustrated

If nothing else, the game was confirmation that the U.S. beat two teams that have struggled all tournament to create chances. On Thursday, the Socceroos had an xG of 0.55, bringing their total for the tournament to 1.78. Paraguay had 0.24, giving the team a whopping three-game total 1.04 (nearly half of which came from set pieces). That’s a bad half for Türkiye, which will take its xG of 6.66 and head back to Istanbul.

These are the type of games the U.S. has to win—especially on home soil. That’s not to diminish what the U.S. did in its first two matches. Paraguay and Australia are counterattacking sides—and teams who employ that style can be even more content to sit back and defend when playing in hostile environs. Mix in the feistiness inherent in both—and if you have an appetite for clichés, toss in a pinch of the old adage that there are no easy matches in the World Cup—and you’ve got a recipe for an upset.

So kudos to the U.S. for doing what needed to be done—and doing it emphatically. But at the same time (and without reading too much into the Yanks’ 3-2 loss to Türkiye in a game that had no bearing on the standings), Thursday’s drab affair suggests that maybe it’s time to gently pull the brake on the Why Not Us Express. What the U.S. needed going into the Türkiye game was to keep on building momentum. Now it has to restore that mojo and continue to jell.

It’ll get its chance to do so next week against Bosnia and Herzegovina—yet another upstart counterattacking side that has trouble scoring goals. Win that and the U.S. is back on track, and perhaps a little more deserving of some hype.

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