How Chelsea Can Still Qualify for the Champions League

The Blues need a lot of help from other teams this coming week to make it.

Chelsea playes do not control their own destiny. | Gaspafotos/MB Media/Getty Images

Chelsea can still qualify for next season’s Champions League, but it would be a monumental leap for the Blues after falling all the way down to 10th place in recent weeks.

If a lot of results go in their favor, Chelsea could make the jump up to sixth. Equally, however, they could yet tumble as low as 14th, which is more plausible given the current table and would match the club’s worst finish in the Premier League era.

Chelsea’s draw against Liverpool on May 9 was the first time the team had taken a point in the Premier League in over two months, having lost six matches in a row—one point from a possible 21.

Miraculously, all hope—while fading fast—is not lost.

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Six Champions League Places for Premier League

Chelsea’s fortunes are tied to Aston Villa. | Visionhaus/Getty Images

There is a distinct possibility that the Premier League will have six teams qualify for the Champions League. On top of the usual four, an extra place has been awarded in the form of a European Performance Spot (EPS) for the success of English teams in UEFA competitions.

The sixth place would come if Aston Villa ‘double qualify’ by getting in through in the Premier League and also winning the Europa League—Unai Emery’s team is favorite against Freiburg on Wednesday. In that scenario, their league place would drop to the next team in England.

Currently, sixth belongs to Bournemouth, for whom Champions League qualification was a previously unfathomable fairytale. Now, as long as Aston Villa win in Europe, it’s within reach if they take as few as two points from their outstanding matches (Manchester City, Nottingham Forest).

Chelsea trail Bournemouth by six points but have a better goal difference, so the only way they can overtake the Cherries is by winning out the season against Tottenham Hotspur (17th) and Sunderland (ninth), and hope Andoni Iraola’s team lose both theirs.

Chelsea need a Bournemouth collapse. | Rob Newell/CameraSport/Getty Images

However, it’s not only Bournemouth in the way. Chelsea also require Brentford, currently eighth, to lose against Liverpool. The EPS is only transferred to the Premier League’s sixth team if Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth, so Liverpool have to jump ahead of them into fourth. That will only happen if Villa also lose to Manchester City next weekend.

Brighton & Hove Albion is the next problem. Even if all of the above happens, the Seagulls must not beat Manchester United from a Chelsea perspective.

Overall, it’s seven Premier League results that have to go right for Chelsea—including two of their own, and one UEFA final. That’s eight matches in total all needing to align.

As one Chelsea fan account noted on X this week: “1% chance, 99% faith.”

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Sixth or 14th Still Possible for Chelsea

The picture in the middle block of the table is so tight. It would only take two more Chelsea losses, Newcastle United, Everton and Fulham to take a point from their respective final fixtures, and Leeds United to win, for the Blues to register a historically bad season.

This was a team considered an outside title contender in November until everything fell apart.

Position	Club	Played	Goal Difference	Points
6th	Bournemouth	36	+4	55
7th	Brighton	37	+9	53
8th	Brentford	37	+3	52
9th	Sunderland	37	-7	51
10th	Chelsea	36	+6	49
11th	Newcastle	37	0	49
12th	Everton	37	-2	49
13th	Fulham	37	-6	49
14th	Leeds	37	-4	47

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