Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Table As Man Utd Send Arsenal Spiralling

The Premier League title race reignited this weekend with the table-toppers dropping points.

Arsenal’s lead atop the Premier League shrunk after a falling at home to Man United. | Catherine IvillAMA/Getty Images

The 2025–26 Premier League title very much came alive during Gameweek 23, with leaders Arsenal losing for the first time in over a month.

Manchester United went into the Emirates Stadium and handed the Gunners their first home defeat of the season. Mikel Arteta’s side have now dropped points in three consecutive top-flight games, resulting in their lead atop the standings shrinking to just four points.

Unlike in previous weeks, Arsenal weren’t so lucky and their nearest chasers, Manchester City and Aston Villa, emerged victorious from their respective games to ramp up the pressure.

But the weekend results not only saw the chasing pack shorten the gap to the league leaders. The race for the Champions League positions also intensified, with United and Chelsea both capitalising on Liverpool’s stoppage-time defeat.

Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the Premier League title race, Champions League race and relegation battle to unfold the rest of the way after such a dramatic weekend of action.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Winners

Arsenal remain the favorites to become champions of England. | Mark Leech/Offside/Offside/Getty Images

Pos.	Team	Current Points	Expected Points	Title Percentage
1.	Arsenal	50	81.49	84.44
2.	Aston Villa	46	72.52	7.09
3.	Man City	46	71.91	8.38

Despite the unwanted slip-up against United, Opta still view Arsenal as the overwhelming favourites to lift the Premier League trophy come the season’s end. Arteta’s men are the only team predicted to eclipse the 80-point barrier and are given a staggering 84.44% chance of ending a 22-year Premier League title drought.

No other team involved in the title race are given a double-digit percentage chance of overtaking Arsenal to win the Premier League.

Aston Villa are predicted to finish second while narrowly eclipsing the 72-point mark. Man City are not far behind, touted to finish just one point back of Unai Emery’s side. Interestingly, though, Opta suggests Man City have a better chance of claiming the title, giving Guardiola’s side 8.38% odds to Villa’s 7.09%.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Champions League Race

Manchester United are targeting a return to the Champions League for the first time since 2023-24. | Nigel French/Sportsphoto/Allstar/Getty Images

Pos.	Team	Current Points	Expected Points	Champions League Percentage
4.	Liverpool	36	61.63	36.42
5.	Chelsea	37	61.03	34.21
6.	Man Utd	38	59.55	21.71
7.	Newcastle	33	55.32	5.72
8.	Brentford	33	53.75	3.25
9.	Fulham	34	53.43	2.62
10.	Everton	32	52.18	1.52
11.	Brighton	30	51.64	1.49

Barring unexpected results, the top five finishers in the Premier League will play Champions League football in 2026–27. Still, below the top three in the title race, a very juicy battle is brewing for the final two spots in Europe’s top club competition between three of England’s powerhouses.

Liverpool dramatically underperformed after winning the Premier League a season ago and currently sit sixth after failing to win any of their last five league games. Still, Opta have them finishing fourth when it’s all said and done, with a 36% chance of qualifying to the Champions League.

Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea are staring to find their groove after beating Crystal Palace 3–1 at Selhurst Park on Sunday. After experiencing massive turmoil at the turn of the year with Enzo Maresca’s exit, the Blues are now predicted to finish fifth with a 34% chance of featuring in the Champions League next season.

Despite consecutive wins against Man City and Arsenal to start the Michael Carrick era in the dugout, Manchester United are expected to be the first team to miss out on Champions League football, finishing sixth. It will certainly be a tight battle, though, with the Red Devils being the only other team to get double-digit odds to make Europe’s most prestigious club competition at 21.71%.

Newcastle United are expected to finish seventh, securing the final European competition place. Brentford, Fulham and Everton are predicted to complete the top 10, with Brighton finishing 11th. These five teams are the only other sides with better than 1% chance of making the Champions League, but none of them creep above 5%.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Relegation Battle

Wolves are Championship bound barring an absolute miracle. | Brett Patzke/WWFC/Wolves/Getty Images

Pos.	Team	Current Points	Expected Points	Relegation Percentage
12.	Bournemouth	30	50.59	0.43
13.	Sunderland	33	49.80	0.39
14.	Crystal Palace	28	47.58	1.47
15.	Tottenham Hotspur	28	47.15	1.33
16.	Leeds United	25	43.21	9.43
17.	Nottingham Forest	25	42.75	9.95
18.	West Ham	20	34.77	80.28
19.	Burnley	15	29.11	96.41
20.	Wolves	8	21.82	99.85

If things go according to Opta’s prediction, then there isn’t expected to be much of a relegation battle, with three teams already viewed as the overwhelming favourites to play in the Championship next season.

Bournemouth, Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Tottenham Hotspur are expected to finish from 12th to 15th in the standings, in that order. Furthermore, all four of these teams have less than 2% chance of getting relegated.

Finishing mid-table would be an incredibly frustrating and mediocre result for Tottenham, who had high-hopes entering the season. On the other hand, Sunderland could become the first newly-promoted side to avoid relegation since the 2022–23 campaign.

Leeds United, who were also promoted ahead of the 2025–26 term, and Nottingham Forest are predicted to be the last two teams to avoid relegation. Although it’s never comfortable to get this close to the bottom three, both of these teams are given just a 9% chance of relegation.

Jarrod Bowen and West Ham are expected to suffer a heartbreaking fate. | Visionhaus/Getty Images

West Ham United are predicting to finish 18th by Opta, and have an 80% chance of getting relegated at this point of the season. Despite recent positive results, the Hammers are expected to get suffer demotion for the first time since 2011.

Newly promoted side Burnley are also set for a swift return to the Championship after one season, with their relegation odds at a discouraging 96%.

Finally, Wolverhampton Wanderers, who’ve won just one of 23 games so far, are already all but relegated. With Opta giving them a 99% chance of going down, it’s only a matter of time before Wolves’ fate is sealed.

On the bright side for Wolves—if there’s any—Opta predicts they’ll finish with 21 points, avoiding getting included in the conversation of the worst Premier League teams of all time. However, that might even seem too optimistic from the supercomputer.

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