Supercomputer Predicts England’s 2026 World Cup Chances After Kobbie Mainoo Claim

The Man Utd midfielder was in a confident move in the build-up to the tournament.

England have high hopes this summer. | Eddie Keogh/The FA/Getty Images

England head to the 2026 World Cup as one of the pre-tournament favorites, and midfielder Kobbie Mainoo believes that status is deserved.

“100%” the Manchester United star declared. “I feel like everyone in the squad, staff ... everyone believes we can win it. But that doesn’t come easy.

“It’s very special, something I’ve dreamed of, and I’m sure all the players have dreamed of since they were really young.

“So to be here and say that I’m playing in a World Cup is unbelievable. I’ve always wanted to play in a World Cup for all my life.

“It’s the biggest tournament in the world, so it’s definitely different from the Euros, but we will try and approach it in the same way with the goal that we want to win.”

But is Mainoo’s confident stance shared by the Opta supercomputer?

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Supercomputer Predicts England’s World Cup Group Stage Odds

England will expect to make light work of the group stage. | Michael Regan/The FA/Getty Images

Group L appears to have been split in two halves, with two teams fighting for top spot and the other two scrapping to follow them through in third.

The biggest threat to England in the early stages is destined to come from perennial dark horses Croatia, although the supercomputer has little doubt about Thomas Tuchel’s side’s chances of topping the group.

England has a 67.76% likelihood of topping the group, with only two nations given higher odds of finishing top. Clearly, even dropping to second would be seen as a massive shock for the Three Lions.

Croatia has respectable odds of 19.73%, while Ghana (7.40%) and Panama (5.11%) will be well aware that the fight for automatic qualification is likely going to be a step too far for them.

Team	Odds of Winning Group L	Odds of Advancing to Round of 32
England	67.76%	95.91%
Croatia	19.73%	76.66%
Ghana	7.40%	50.09%
Panama	5.11%	39.93%

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Supercomputer Predicts England’s World Cup Knockout Stage Odds

Thomas Tuchel hopes to lead England to glory. | Eddie Keogh/The FA/Getty Images

England cannot afford to be overcome by complacency, but the reality is Tuchel’s side will already have one eye on the later stages of this competition.

Backed to win its group, England’s most likely opposition in the round of 32 will come from one of the third-placed teams from Groups E, H, I, J or K. Clearly, there are a number of different possibilities here but there are some big teams potentially waiting for England, including Uruguay, Ecuador, Norway and Colombia.

Regardless of who is on the agenda for England, the Three Lions once again boast the third-highest odds of advancing to the round of 16, sat at 68.57%.

That trend continues as the tournament progresses, with England also holding the third-highest odds of moving through to the quarterfinals at 47.20%. Host nation Mexico is among the possible opponents here, as is England’s famous rival, Scotland.

However, when it comes to advancing to the semifinals, England does actually drop down a place in the supercomputer’s rankings. Odds of 29.76% are still among the best on offer—Spain leads the way with 38.70% at this stage—but the chance of meeting a giant like Brazil could represent an obvious step-up in competition for Tuchel’s side.

It is Argentina that leapfrogs England in those rankings and, fascinatingly, the two nations could meet in the semifinals. In good news for the European outfit, England actually jumps back above the reigning Copa América champions, but only just. The supercomputer gives England odds of 18.52% of getting all the way to the final, marginally above Argentina’s 17.82%.

Spain or France would appear to be the most likely competition if England gets all the way to the final and, unfortunately for the Three Lions, it is those two sides that have sat higher in the rankings throughout the tournament to this point.

Given a 10.92% chance of winning, England are still seen as the third most-likely victor at this summer’s World Cup, but Spain (16.23%) and France (12.84%) are both out in front.

Round	England’s Odds of Making it
Round of 16	68.57%
Quarterfinals	47.20%
Semifinals	29.76%
Final	18.52%
Winners	10.92%

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