Supercomputer Predicts Impact of Derby Defeat on Real Madrid's Title Hopes

Now, we can say that José Mourinho is well and truly back. It was all a bit too wholesome for the ‘Special One’ until the Madrid derby facilitated the return of vintage Mourinho.

His Real Madrid side were beaten 2–1 by their cross-city rivals at the Metropolitano in a hotly contested encounter that certainly wasn’t short of flashpoints.

And, of course, Mourinho’s men were subject to a gross injustice. It was Dean Huijsen’s sending-off, leading to an Atléti penalty, that drastically altered proceedings, but Mourinho believed the hosts should’ve been reduced to nine men already by that point.

He had images of the two relevant red card-worthy challenges at his disposal postgame, saying: “We can skip the press conference as the story of the game is here—they are two clear red cards.”

So, it’s taken just a few weeks, and the second defeat of his second stint, for Mourinho to pivot back to ‘us vs. the world.’ However unfair Madrid deemed the loss to be, their performance and result laid bare all too familiar shortcomings and further highlighted the size of the job at Mourinho’s disposal.

They’re not merely hunting Barcelona in a bid to reclaim the La Liga title, but a Barcelona team that seems determined to be remembered as one of the most exhilirating we’ve ever seen.

The back-to-back champions already possess a comfortable buffer at the summit, and here‘s how Opta’s supercomputer projects La Liga’s title race to pan out after Madrid’s defeat to Atléti.

Opta Predicts La Liga Title Race After Madrid Derby

Pos.	Team	Current Points	Expected Points	Chance of Winning Title
1.	Barcelona	21	87.19	75.02%
2.	Real Madrid	15	76.49	16.47%
3.	Atlético Madrid	16	70.45	5.98%
4.	Real Betis	16	64.77	2.09%
5.	Villarreal	8	55.16	0.18%

Barcelona are now five points clear at the top of the table after they continued their perfect start to the season by beating Sevilla 3–1 on Saturday. The red-hot Raphinha scored all three for the visitors, who are the overwhelming favorites to win a third consecutive league title.

Opta rate Barça’s chances of retaining their crown at a lofty 75.02%, backing them to finish with at least 87 points—a rather bullish projection, given the supercomputer’s typical conservatism.

Real Madrid‘s defeat at the Metropolitano meant they fell behind by their cross-city rivals and head into the first international break of the season down in fourth. Real Betis, who inflicted the first loss upon Mourinho since his return, are third despite drawing at Deportivo de A Coruña on Sunday.

Madrid had a 31% chance of winning the title before the season got underway, but that has shrunk to a 16.47% chance after succumbing to their local rivals.

Atléti’s hopes of an unlikely push were certainly emboldened by their triumph, and they’ve now won three games on the bounce without a goal from Julián Alvarez, the main character of La Liga’s summer. Opta gives Diego Simeone’s Rojiblancos a 5.98% chance of winning the title for the first time since 2021.

While Atléti have twice disrupted Barça and Madrid’s duopoly with Simeone at the helm, an alternative La Liga victor hasn’t emerged since Valencia were crowned champions in 2003–04.

Barcelona’s brilliance means an underdog is unlikely to prevail this time around, even if Betis have made a bright start to the season. Manuel Pellegrini’s side are back in the Champions League and set to keep their spot among the continent’s aristocracy next season. However, their chances of winning La Liga are minute, precisely 2.09% per Opta.

Villarreal are backed to recover from their poor start to the campaign and finish fifth, but the Yellow Submarine won’t be claiming their maiden Spanish crown this term.

Barcelona Chasing Historic La Liga Season After Record-Breaking Start

Seven games, seven wins and 31 goals scored. Barcelona are currently on track to record the perfect La Liga season and score 168 goals in the process if that continues until May.

Flick’s men have enjoyed a record-breaking start to the campaign, their best in a century, and while they look destined to win La Liga at a canter, this team will also be hunting records.

One hundred points remains the record haul, notched by Mourinho’s Madrid (2011–12) and Tito Vilanova’s Barça (2012–13) in back-to-back seasons.

That Madrid team also scored a monstrous 121 goals during their title success, meaning Flick’s team needs 91 goals in their remaining 31 matches at a rate of 2.93 per match to top that tally. Doable.

While Barça were edged to the La Liga title by Mourinho’s counterattacking juggernaut during Pep Guardiola’s final season in charge, they scored an insane 190 goals in all competitions (114 in the league). This Barça side have 36 goals in eight games, and will benefit from playing another seven league phase matches in the Champions League.

An expected deep run in Europe means this record will be under threat, too.

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