Supercomputer Predicts USMNT’s 2026 World Cup Finish After Winning Group D

The best World Cup finish of the modern era could be achieved by Mauricio Pochettino’s in-form side.

The USMNT already has a place in the round of 32. | Kohjiro Kinno/Sports Illustrated

Fresh off securing its spot in the round of 32, the U.S. men’s national team is dreaming of claiming its first-ever World Cup trophy on home soil.

Despite underwhelming results in the build-up to this summer’s showpiece event, the Stars and Stripes came out flying on the world stage. It dismantled Paraguay 4–1 in their 2026 World Cup opener, and then saw out a mature 2–0 win over Australia to punch its ticket to the knockout rounds.

Australia and Paraguay also helped out Mauricio Pochettino’s men by defeating Türkiye, allowing the USMNT to clinch first place of Group D with one game left to play. Now, the host nation takes on Arda Güler and co. without any pressure in its group stage finale.

Such a dominant display from the U.S. has fans and pundits talking about the chances of a deep run this summer, powered by home crowds throughout the country. But how does the Opta supercomputer rate the USMNT’s chances of claiming World Cup glory?

Compete against the world. | SPORTS ILLUSTRATED

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Supercomputer Predicts USMNT’s World Cup Finish

Folarin Balogun (right) has been the X factor for the USMNT this summer. | Richard Heathcote/Getty Images

Sitting atop Group D with six points and the head-to-head advantage over Paraguay and Australia, the USMNT is already guaranteed a place in the round of 32. As the winners of the group, the host nation will play the third place team from Group B, E, F, I or J; as it currently stands, those potential opponents would be Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ecuador, Sweden, Senegal or Jordan.

The supercomputer heavily favors the USMNT’s odds to advance past any its first knockout stage foe. Opta predicts the team has a 73.26% chance of securing a place in the last 16, matching its finish from its last three World Cup appearances.

The U.S. are desperate to at least make the quarterfinals for only the third time in its World Cup history. The supercomputer gives them 47.54% odds of doing so, a number that would have seemed improbable before the tournament kicked off.

Round	USMNT’s Odds
Round of 32	100%
Round of 16	73.26%
Quaterfinals	47.54%
Semifinals	22.38%
Final	10.25%
Winners	4.69%

The USMNT’s odds take a nosedive after the quarterfinals. It only has a 22.38% chance of securing a place in the semifinals. The number might not seem overly optimistic, but only five other teams—France, Argentina, Spain, England, Germany—have a higher percentage.

As for a place in the final? Opta gives Pochettino’s men a 10.25% chance of booking a spot at MetLife Stadium on July 19. The USMNT has never featured in a World Cup final, and doing so this summer on home soil would be a momentous occasion ... that the supercomputer believes would end in heartbreak.

The U.S. only has a 4.69% chance of lifting soccer’s most prestigious prize. France, Spain, Argentina and England are the only nations given double-digit odds of becoming world champions this summer, while the 44 other teams in the competition are reduced to minuscule percentages.

The USMNT has already far exceeded expectations, though, and if you ask Zlatan Ibrahimović, Pochettino’s men can do the impossible and win the 2026 World Cup.

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