Supercomputer Predicts UEFA Super Cup Winner As PSG, Aston Villa Battle for Glory

Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain are back in the UEFA Super Cup, this time competing against Europa League holders Aston Villa on Wednesday at Red Bull Arena.

Luis Enrique’s side joined Real Madrid in the Champions League record books last season as the only two teams in the modern era to ever top Europe’s most prestigious club competition in back-to-back seasons. PSG defeated Arsenal in a penalty shootout back in May to maintain their status as European champions.

Aston Villa, meanwhile, won their first major trophy in 30 years when they dominated Freiburg in last season’s Europa League final. Unai Emery’s men now get the chance to start 2026–27 off with silverware, but getting past PSG will not be easy—just ask Tottenham Hotspur.

Spurs faced off with the Parisians in the 2025 UEFA Super Cup and had a commanding 2–0 lead until the 85th minute, when the French giants kickstarted a stunning comeback to force penalties, which ended in their favor.

One year later, PSG will once again look to get past a Premier League side en route to another trophy. Here’s how the Opta supercomputer rates their chances, as well as Aston Villa’s, ahead of the showpiece fixture.

Supercomputer Predicts 2026 UEFA Super Cup Outcome

Ousmane Dembélé — PSG are the favorites heading into Wednesday’s match. | Mattia Ozbot/UEFA/Getty Images

Team / Outcome	Chances
PSG Winning	45%
Aston Villa Winning	29.6%
Draw / Extra Time / Penalities	25.5%

The supercomputer is unsurprisingly backing PSG to win the 2026 UEFA Super Cup. The Parisians are given a 45% chance of winning the match in 90 minutes.

It’s hard to bet against Enrique’s men, who have claimed just about every honor available in France and Europe over last two seasons. Plus, the Champions League holders have won 14 of the last 17 UEFA Super Cups, with Atlético Madrid being the only side—all three times—to topple the reigning European champions in that span.

PSG might jump off the page, but they will no doubt be rusty. The defending French champions have only played two preseason friendlies, and most of the team’s biggest names only recently rejoined the squad following the 2026 World Cup.

PSG are gearing up for their second UEFA Super Cup. | Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Aston Villa come into the showpiece event as the underdogs. The reigning Europa League champions are given just 29.6% odds of winning Wednesday’s match in regulation.

Emery’s men, though, are no doubt the team with better match fitness. Aston Villa have already played five preseason friendlies, most recently a 2–1 defeat to Bayern Munich. Should the game extend into extra time, it could tilt in favor of the better-conditioned visitors.

The Villans will also hope to channel their gritty performance from the 2024–25 Champions League quarterfinals. They narrowly fell 5–4 on aggregate to PSG after a thrilling comeback at Villa Park in the second leg, proving they can hang with Europe’s elite on their best day ... except they won’t have Morgan Rogers or Youri Tielemans this time around.

Just below Aston Villa’s chances of winning the UEFA Super Cup in regulation are the odds of 120 minutes. Opta gives the game a 25.5% chance of ending in a draw, forcing extra time and potentially a penalty shootout.

PSG will love their chances of emerging victorious in penalties. The team did so in the 2025 UEFA Super Cup against Tottenham and against Arsenal at the Puskás Aréna just three months ago.

Add us as a preferred source on Google