What Chelsea’s Defeat Means for Man Utd, Liverpool’s Champions League Hopes

The Blues lost further ground in the hunt for Europe after an embarrassing match with Brighton.

Chelsea have wilted under the pressure. | Ash Donelon/Manchester United/Ben Roberts/James Gill/Danehouse/Getty Images

While Chelsea fans were turning away in horror, disgust or just disbelief, Tuesday night’s 3–0 embarrassment against Brighton & Hove Albion was delightful news for Manchester United and Liverpool supporters.

The result pushed Chelsea, considered outside Premier League title contenders in November, down to seventh place in the standings. Only the top five will qualify for next season’s Champions League and the Blues are seven points adrift of fifth place, having played one match more.

That gap, with only 12 remaining points on offer to Chelsea, is likely impossible to close at this late stage of the campaign. Bizarrely, Brighton actually pose a bigger threat to Manchester United and Liverpool in the race for Europe’s elite competition.

The Seagulls have moved up to sixth, five points behind fifth-place Liverpool. They, too, however, have played a game extra and can only get a maximum of 12 more points.

Both Manchester United and Liverpool have 15 points each left to play for, albeit one of those remaining fixtures is against each other on May 3.

Brentford also now pose a bigger threat in the hunt for Champions League qualification. The Bees, a team many predicted to struggle this season after losing influential manager Thomas Frank last summer, sit level on points with Chelsea but also have five matches left.

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What Man Utd, Liverpool Need to Guarantee Champions League Entry

Manchester United and Liverpool have Champions League qualification in their sights. | Robbie Jay Barratt/AMA/Getty Images

Ultimately, Chelsea can get a maximum of 60 points for the season—assuming the Blues can even arrest a 114-year low five-game losing slump. Manchester United can eclipse that tally with only one win out of their five outstanding fixtures, while Liverpool can get there in two.

To ensure they finish above Brighton and Brentford to guarantee Champions League qualification for 2026–27, Manchester United have to get two more wins, and Liverpool three.

Chelsea can still mathematically get to the Champions League, but must win-out the season and require at least one of their two main rivals to completely collapse, while also needing Brighton and Brentford to drop points. It is all but impossible.

The Race for Champions League Qualification

Position	Club	Current Points	Possible Points
3. (CL)	Man Utd	58	73
4. (CL)	Aston Villa	58	73
5. (CL)	Liverpool	55	70
6.	Brighton	50	62
7.	Chelsea	48	60
8.	Brentford	48	63

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Chelsea Slump Risks Bottom-Half Finish

Chelsea are on a worst losing run since 1912. | Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC/Getty Images

Chelsea’s fight now is to secure any form of European competition for next season. As it stands, sixth place equates to Europa League qualification, with seventh good enough for the Conference League—the Blues won the latter competition last season.

In the event that Manchester City win the FA Cup, an extra Europa League place will be decided via the final Premier League standings. In that scenario, seventh is enough for the Europa League and the Conference League spot drops to whoever is eighth.

Chelsea themselves could secure the FA Cup’s Europa League place by winning it. First, they face Leeds United in the semifinals at Wembley Stadium on Sunday.

If Chelsea don’t win the FA Cup, the ideal outcome is Manchester City winning it instead, thereby increasing the chance of qualifying for a European competition via the Premier League.

Of course, should Liam Rosenior’s men keep losing, not only is European qualification out of the question, but they could even tumble out of the top half of the Premier League altogether. Falling as low as 12th is not unrealistic on current form, matching 2022–23 as Chelsea’s lowest finish since the league was reduced to 20 teams in 1995.

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