Winners Club: A Midseason MLB Future Odds Update
These summer months truly belong to baseball.
Teams are passing the midpoint of the 162-game season with the All-Star game coming down the barrel. So what better time to check in on the futures betting markets to see where value can be found across the MLB landscape? The ship on the Yankees as a sleeper pick may have long sailed, but there’s plenty of other value bets to be found.
Keep reading for an MLB betting breakdown, NFL trade news, NBA summer league prep and a look ahead to the Big Ten football season.
Yankees Pass Dodgers as World Series Front Runner
New York won last night—again. The Yankees are not only running away with the AL East (which they lead by 14.5 games) and the American League (they have a 5.5-game lead over the Astros), but they also own the best record in baseball and have passed the Dodgers as the favorites to win the World Series.
The Dodgers opened the season as +450 favorites to win the World Series for the second time in three seasons. Those odds have dropped to +400, second-best in MLB, but New York has moved past them. The Yankees opened at +1100, were at +750 a month ago and are now +350 to win their first title since 2009.
Gene J. Puskar/AP
Unsurprisingly, New York is an even heavier favorite to win the American League (+170) and the AL East (-2500). The Astros are prohibitive favorites to take the AL West (-10000) and the Twins have a hold on the AL Central (-111)—for now. Jen Piacenti broke down the betting market in the AL at large and in each division.
In the NL, the Dodgers reign supreme. L.A. is the frontrunner to win the pennant (+210) and a massive favorite to win the NL West (-400). The other National League divisions are more wide open with the Mets (-160) leading the way in the East and the Brewers (-225) atop the Central. Read Piacenti’s NL betting breakdown.
Fantasy Football Forecast Following Mayfield Trade
The Panthers now have two of the top three picks from the 2018 NFL draft on their roster. In a vacuum, that should be a good thing, but it’s not as big of a win when you consider those players both play quarterback and were cast aside by their former teams.
Carolina acquired former No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield from the Browns in a trade this week after it traded for Sam Darnold, the third overall pick in 2018, last offseason. And the front office added yet another quarterback in the third round of this year’s draft: Ole Miss’ Matt Corral.
Mayfield is undoubtedly an upgrade at the position. Jen Piacenti examined the fantasy impact the trade may have on the Panthers’ skill position players: D.J. Moore will be playing with the best QB of his career, Christian McCaffrey remains an elite option and Terrace Marshall Jr. could come on after a disappointing rookie season. The MMQB’s Conor Orr broke down what the trade means for everyone involved, from Kevin Stefanski to the NFC South as a whole.
Bill Kostroun/AP
Sticking in the world of fantasy football, Michael Fabiano checked in with three prime touchdown regression candidates at the running back position.
Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor and James Conner each found the end zone 18 times in 2021. Can they repeat that success? Well…as Fabiano writes: “There have been 58 instances of a back scoring 18-plus times in a single season. All but six saw that total decline the following season.” Maybe one of these early-round running backs will buck that trend.
And ahead of the Monday launch of SI’s Fantasy Football Draft Kit, find out each of Fabiano’s picks for top sleeper, biggest bust, late-round QB and more!
NBA Offseason Focus Shifts to Summer League
All is quiet on the Kevin Durant trade request front… for now. He’s reportedly “gone dark” since he asked out of Brooklyn a week ago.
The NBA trade and free agency market has cooled down since the Timberwolves shelled out a king’s ransom in exchange for Rudy Gobert a week ago.
That’s opened the door for Summer League to dominate over the next few weeks as fans get their first look at this year’s rookies, some second-year players and other roster hopefuls in Salt Lake City and Las Vegas.
Jeff Swinger/AP
Michael Shapiro wrote a summer league primer to get viewers both diehard and casual ready for the Chet Holmgren hype, the Warriors’ young core and a genuine look at Portland’s Shaedon Sharpe, who left Thursday’s game with a left shoulder injury. Check out his preview to ready yourself for what Shapiro called “launching point for the stars of tomorrow.”
And if you’re interested in wagering on Summer League games, SI Sportsbook has you covered.
Buckeyes Heavy Favorites to Win Big Ten
So much of the discussion around college football this offseason has been centered around NIL and conference realignment rather than the actual games themselves.
But the offseason is flying by with Week 0 kicking off next month.
The anticipation of the 2022 season is so great that the Peach Bowl College Football Playoff game on New Year’s Eve has already sold out, breaking its previous record by a day.
It’s unknown, of course, which teams will be competing in the game, but there’s a decent chance Ohio State, excuse me, THE Ohio State is one of the competitors.
Frankie Taddeo previewed the Big Ten where the Buckeyes are big favorites to win the conference and have the third-best odds to win the national championship.
There’s a steep drop off after Ryan Day’s squad, which checks in at -250, before OSU’s heated rival and reigning conference champion Michigan (+800) and Penn State (+900). Read Taddeo’s full Big Ten betting preview and check out his SEC preview here.
Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Speaking of the Buckeyes, quarterback C.J. Stroud is the favorite to win the Heisman trophy at +250 odds. Next in line is Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, the reigning Heisman winner (+350).
It's a two-man race so far in early July. That means there’s long shot potential with a player like Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke or Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel. See how the field is shaping up in the summer.
And if you’re looking for more chaos in the college football landscape, Ross Dellenger and Pat Forde reported Wednesday that the ACC and Pac-12 are discussing an ESPN TV partnership in the wake of the Big Ten’s addition of USC and UCLA.
In Other News
Separating the Super Bowl Contenders from the Field: The Bills are the Super Bowl favorites—which other teams have a shot at the Lombardi Trophy come February? Orr makes the case for 11 teams besides Buffalo, plus a possible wild card.
Canadiens Select Juraj Slafkovsky First in NHL Draft: Montreal landed the 2022 Olympics MVP with the No. 1 pick in the first round Thursday night. Read how the rest of the round unfolded and which top prospects remain for Round 2.
Rafael Nadal Withdraws from Wimbledon: The 22-time Grand Slam champion will miss out on his chance at a Calendar Grand Slam due to an abdominal tear he suffered Wednesday. Nadal dropping out sends Nick Kyrgios to Sunday’s final.
USWNT Qualifies for 2023 World Cup: The U.S. women’s national team is gunning for a World Cup three-peat and it earned the opportunity to do just that by securing a top-two group finish two games into the Concacaf W Championship.
Thanks for reading Winners Club! Enjoy your weekend and I’ll be back Monday morning.
