Over the course of 2020 and into 2021, our Senior Gambling Analyst and Vegas Insider- Frankie Taddeo - has shared his horse racing handicapping formula which has correctly predicted the following winners at SI Gambling:
Travers Stakes - Exacta (8/1), Trifecta (36/1)
Blue Grass Stakes - Exacta (12/1), Trifecta (60/1) and Superfecta (443/1)
Frizette Stakes - Exacta Cold
Desi Arnaz Stakes - Exacta (31/1)
Ontario Derby - Trifecta (72/1)
Tropical Turf Stakes - Trifecta (37/1) - 2021*
Rebel Stakes - Concert Tour - Winner
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On Saturday, SI Gambling’s “Race of the Week” takes us to racing action from Oaklawn Park. Among the 13 races on the card is the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby which has drawn a field of six. The renowned race is the final Kentucky Derby prep race with the winner receiving 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. The second place finisher will receive 40 points, with third place netting 20 points and the fourth place finisher 10 points in the standings.
This race is highly competitive but the numbers from my formula are jumping off the page that a horse we backed in the Rebel Stakes is once again the clear horse to beat. The morning line favorite Concert Tour (1/1) for Bob Baffert is in top form and will be the one the field will have to defeat in the Arkansas Derby. Concert Tour, who is 3 for 3 in his early career, enters off an impressive 4-length victory over several returning foes in this field - following a solid win in the San Vicente Stakes in February.
The second choice is Brad Cox's Caddo River (7/2) who was soundly defeated by Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes. Prior to his fifth place finish the Rebel, he had been visually impressive winning both of his last two races winning by over 19 lengths combined.
Hozier (3/1), the “other” Baffert entry who is a son of Pioneer of the Nile, was runner-up to Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes, but the question becomes can earn more than just a minor award once again?
Who will cross the finish line first? Let’s take a look at the odds and dive deeper.
Arkansas Derby (G1)
Racetrack: Oaklawn Park
Date: Saturday, April 10, 2021
Distance: 1 ⅛ M, Dirt
Post Time: 6:41 pm EST / 3:41 pm PST
HORSES OF NOTE: Listed by post number, name, and odds:
#5 Concert Tour (1/1) - The formula lands squarely on Bob Baffert’s entry who will be looking to remain undefeated heading into next month’s Kentucky Derby. This son of Street Sense is in peak form and with Joel Rosario back in the saddle he is simply the one to beat. We need to highlight that Concert Tour, who had a five pound weight advantage over Caddo River in the Rebel Stakes, will now be carrying the same weight in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby (122). Pick
#3 Hozier (3/1) - This son of Pioneer of the Nile for trainer Bob Baffert has improved his speed figures and hit the board in his last two races (1-1-0). He will need a pace duel to run into to win this one on Saturday. I will use him on all exacta and trifecta tickets. Exotics
#2 Caddo River (7/2) - Brad Cox’s entry will look to rebound and take the field gate-to-wire like he did in the Smarty Jones Stakes on January 22 - winning by over 10-lengths. This son of Hardspun, who has won a race over this course, will need to be more forwardly placed than he was in the Rebel Stakes if he has any hopes of beating Concert Tour in the rematch. Underneath
Arkansas Derby Formula Rankings
- #5 Concert Tour
- #3 Hozier
- #2 Caddo River
- #1 Super Stock
- #4 Get Her Number
- #6 Last Samurai
Arkansas Derby Betting Breakdown
According to the formula this race will likely play out the same way as what transpired in the Rebel Stakes last month and I will play it accordingly. I will use #5 Concert Tour (1/1) predominantly on top of #3 Hozier (3/1) and #2 Caddo River (2/1) and #1 Super Stock (6/1).
WIN Wager: #5
TOP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 5 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,4
$1 wager: $6
SPREAD Trifecta Part-Wheel: 5 with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4
$1 wager: $12
All wagers display ticket cost. All bettors should adjust wager amounts based upon bankroll.
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Expected Kentucky Derby Favorite: Essential Quality
Kentucky Derby Leaderboard