NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 7 Thursday Night Football - Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns
Two 3-3 teams clash in Cleveland this Thursday night, with both looking to break their losing skids. Let's pick a few player props with some generous payouts.
Check SI Sportsbook for the latest odds
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Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns
- Moneyline: Denver (+115) | Cleveland (-138)
- Spread: Denver +2.5 (+100) | Cleveland -2.5 (-118)
- Total: 41.5 - Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 21, 2021 | 8:20 p.m. ET | Fox
The Denver Broncos come into Cleveland looking to avoid a four-game losing streak, while the Browns need a win after a tough loss at home to Arizona.
The trouble for the Browns is they are utterly beat up.
Baker Mayfield has a completely torn left labrum (non-throwing arm side) and will miss this game. Case Keenum will start in his place.
Cleveland will also be without both their superstar running backs. Kareem Hunt has officially landed on IR and Nick Chubb has already been scratched for this week.
To further complicate matters, Odell Beckham, Jr. has a new shoulder injury, and Jarvis Landry has yet to practice in full, though he is no longer on IR. Oh, and did I mention Cleveland is also missing key O-linemen? Cleveland has seen better days.
On the other side, Denver is mostly healthy except for their quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who is dealing with a foot injury. I can’t make this stuff up.
Cleveland is averaging 26 points per game compared to Denver’s 21, while Denver has the edge defensively, allowing 18.3 points per game compared to Cleveland’s 25.2.
I’m recommending Denver in this game Against The Spread (ATS), and I will even take them as road dogs on the moneyline +115. The odds moved in Denver's direction Wednesday after the Browns announced Mayfield would not be starting.
Check out the odds at SI Sportsbook
Bridgewater may have thrown three interceptions Sunday, but he also tossed three touchdowns and Cleveland’s secondary looks completely lost. Arizona receivers ran free last week, and Denver has the receiving weapons to take advantage. Cleveland has surrendered 14 passing touchdowns, tied for the third-highest mark in the league.
However, I also expect Cleveland to give the Denver run game some trouble. The Browns remain stout, allowing only 420 yards and two touchdowns to running backs.
Offensively, Cleveland is built to run but I can’t put my faith in a couple of backup running backs that have combined for a total of three carries running behind a beat up offensive line. Let’s not discount the fact that Denver has also been tough against the run, allowing only 431 total yards and 3.74 yards per carry to opposing running backs.
When I add all of this up, I am leaning UNDER on the game total of 41.5.
It seems to me that very little in this game is a safe bet.
As mentioned before, Denver and Cleveland are both strong against the run game, and Cleveland will be using a backup quarterback and backup running backs, missing key offensive linemen and may also be without its two top receivers.
Quite simply, anything could happen. So, why not swing for the fences?
Let’s look at some player props!
I also love Courtland Sutton—who sees the most air yards for Denver—in this spot, but the potential payday is more fun for Tim Patrick.
The Browns have allowed nine touchdowns to opposing wide receivers—that’s tied with the Washington Football Team for the second-most in the league. They’ve also allowed the seventh-most yards to opposing wide receivers. Patrick has been a reliable receiver for Teddy B all year, playing the same number of snaps as Sutton on the season yet finding the end zone one more time than his teammate.
Cleveland has allowed three receiving and two rushing touchdowns—for a total of five—to opposing tight ends this year. Noah Fant has played an average of 93% of the offensive snaps across the last three games—the most of any Denver pass catcher—and he has seen 26% of the team’s red zone targets this year.
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Donovan Peoples-Jones anytime TD +270
Odell Beckham Jr. did not practice again Tuesday, while Jarvis Landry “moved around.” It’s tough to say whether Cleveland will be able to count on its top two receivers Thursday, but one thing is for sure: Donovan Peoples-Jones is good to go.
The sophomore receiver had the best game of his career last Sunday, going for 101 yards and two touchdowns. He out-snapped OBJ and has played 70% of the season snaps. Can he find the end zone for the second week in a row? I’ll take a shot on it.
Teddy Bridgewater anytime TD +800
Is this crazy? Yes! I mean, I’m betting on a hobbled quarterback who hasn’t had a rushing touchdown all year! But Cleveland has allowed three rushing touchdowns to opposing QBs. Patrick Mahomes, Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert all punched one in. Teddy B had five rushing TDs in 2020, and maybe—just maybe—he’s due.
More Betting:
• Week 7 Early Line Movements
• Week 6 Bad Beats
• NBA Futures Betting Guide
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