March Madness Bets: Three First-Round Games Bettors Should Target Thursday
After Tuesday’s play-in games, Thursday’s field is set and SI Betting is highlighting three key matchups for the first full day of action in the NCAA men’s tournament.
We have 16 great matchups that will kick off four consecutive days of morning to night college basketball action!
Here are some important statistics to know:
Over the last two tournaments, the teams with a better seed have gone 41-22 (65%) straight-up (SU) but only 24-39 (38%) against the spread (ATS) in the round of 64. Over the last ten tournaments, the 5-seeds hold a 24-16 (60%) SU)record but a disappointing 14-23-3 (35%) ATS mark over the 12-seeds. Meanwhile 4-seed’s have a 14-6 (70%) SU record, but only own a 8-12 ATS (40%) mark against 13-seeds in the last five tournaments.
What should bettors take away from that?
Underdogs bark loud and proud in the first round!
Several games involving those seeds have already received attention from respected money for Thursday. Let’s dive right into the games!
Josh Jurgens/AP
Midwest Region: No. 13 South Dakota (30-4) vs No. 4 Providence (25-5)
Spread: South Dakota State +2.5 (-118) | Providence -2.5 (-110)
Total: 149.5 – Over (-110) | Under 149.5 (-118)
Moneyline: South Dakota State (+110) | Providence (-143)
Game Info: Thursday, March 17, 2022 | 12:40 p.m. ET | truTV
Site: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, N.Y.
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has held steady since No. 4 Providence (17-13 ATS) opened as a 2.5-point favorite over No. 13 South Dakota State (17-14-1 ATS) at SI Sportsbook.
Providence heads into the tournament looking to shake off a 27-point blowout loss to Creighton in the semifinals of the Big East tournament. Big East Coach of the Year, Ed Cooley, will now look to restore his team’s confidence in a short amount of time.
The Friars, who are 20-4 over their last 24 games, are guided by the senior leadership of center Nate Watson (13.8 ppg) down low on the block. Jared Bynum (41.7%) and Noah Horchler (40.06%) dominate from beyond the arc, which will make the Friars a tough out. The analytics of KenPom continues to believe this team is just a “mirage” ranking 31st in adjusted offense and 79th in adjusted defense.
On the flip side, South Dakota State is a team that most basketball fans have likely not watched this season but need to pay attention to when filling out your bracket. The Jackrabbits are enjoying the best regular season in program history. South Dakota State became the first team to go unbeaten in both the Summit League regular season as well as postseason play, compiling a perfect 21-0 record.
South Dakota State won 30 games thanks to the leading efforts of senior forward Douglas Wilson (16.5 ppg) and the excellent backcourt duo of Baylor Scheierman (16.2 ppg) and Noah Freidel (16.2 ppg). The Jackrabbits rank second in the nation in scoring (87.2 ppg) on the strength of being the best team in the country shooting from beyond the arc (45.1%).
Upon a deeper dive, we discover this is the smallest point spread ever posted by oddsmakers involving a 4-seed and a 13-seed. To see this line at just two points tells a story here. The early respected money in Las Vegas and at SI Sportsbook is grabbing the points with the underdog. Back South Dakota State to pull the upset.
BET: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE +2.5
Gerry Broome/AP Photo
East Region: No. 9 Marquette (19-12) vs. No. 8 North Carolina (24-9)
Spread: Marquette +3.5 (-118) | North Carolina -3.5 (-110)
Total: 152 – Over (-118) | Under 152 (-110)
Moneyline: Marquette (+138) | UNC (-188)
Game Info: Thursday, March 17, 2022 | 4:30 p.m. ET | TBS
Site: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has ticked up since opening in favor of No. 8 North Carolina (16-16-1 ATS) as a two-point favorite over No. 9 Marquette (16-15 ATS) to a line now reflecting the Tar Heels as 3.5-point favorites at SI Sportsbook.
North Carolina was unable to carry over the momentum of upsetting Duke, 94-81, as 11-point underdogs in Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game into the ACC tournament. The Tar Heels were soundly beaten by Virginia Tech in the semifinals and now find themselves as the No. 8 seed in the East Region. North Carolina, who is 6-1 SU in their last seven games, has rewarded bettors with a 5-2 ATS mark over that span.
Junior forward Armando Bacot has recorded an astounding 25 double-doubles in 33 games this season and leads the team scoring (16.5 ppg) and rebounding (12.5 rbg). Bacot leads a cast of four Tar Heels averaging double-digit points, which includes star sophomore guard Caleb Love (15.4 ppg). Brady Manek has been sensational for Hubert Davis’ crew, averaging hitting at a 38.6% clip from beyond the arc.
Marquette, meanwhile, struggled immensely over the last month by losing five out of their last eight games. The Golden Eagles, who lost their quarterfinals matchup to Creighton, burned bettors with a disappointing 1-7 ATS over their last eight games.
Marquette’s offense heavily relies upon the talents of Justin Lewis, who finished as the Big East’s third-leading scorer at 17.1 points per game while grabbing 7.9 rebounds. If this game is close down the stretch, the Golden Eagles have struggled as a team from the free-throw line, ranking 88th in the nation at just 74.3%.
The early respected money in Vegas and at SI Sportsbook is backing North Carolina to rebound with a big effort for Hubert Davis in the first round and are laying the points in Thursday’s first-round matchup.
BET: NORTH CAROLINA -3 (Buy the hook)
Michael Woods/AP
West Region: No. 13 Vermont (28-5) vs. No. 4 Arkansas (25-8)
Spread: Vermont +5 (-110) | Arkansas -5 (-118)
Total: 139.5 – Over (-110) | Under 139.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Vermont (+170) | Arkansas (-250)
Game Info: Thursday, March 17, 2022 | 9:20 p.m. ET | TNT
Site: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, N.Y.
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has dropped since opening with No. 4 Arkansas (20-12-1 ATS) as a 6.5-point favorite over No. 13 Vermont (19-13 ATS) at SI Sportsbook to only a 5-point demand.
Arkansas is 7-3 in its last 10 games, but is trending in the wrong direction heading into the tournament since two of those losses occurred in its last three games. However, the Razorbacks rewarded bettors with a lucrative 7-2-1 ATS mark over that stretch.
Senior guard JD Notae leads the Arkansas attack with 18.4 points per game. Senior South Dakota transfer Stanley Umude has been outstanding for Eric Musselman’s squad, shooting a team-best 37.1% from deep. In their 82-64 loss to Texas A&M in the SEC tournament semifinals, the Razorbacks struggled from beyond the arc going 3 of 18 (16.7%). Arkansas ranks 303rd in the country in three-point shooting (30.7%).
On the flip side, Vermont is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS over its last 10 games and rolled through the America East Tournament. Over its eight-game winning streak, Vermont has beaten its opponents by an average of 25.1 points per game.
Seniors Ryan Davis (17.2 ppg) and Ben Shungu (16.1 ppg) anchor the Vermont offense, which ranks 15th in the nation in shooting percentage (48.6%).
As noted above, 3-seeds have advanced at a 70% clip but have only covered the spread at a 40% clip over the last five tournaments. Respected money was all over this game at the open driving the line down a full point. Let’s follow their lead and grab the points with the under-the-radar Catamounts, who may get overlooked by Arkansas.
BET: VERMONT +5
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SI NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BET REVIEW
2022 March Madness: 1-0 ATS
2022 NCAA Conference Tournaments: 7-1 ATS
2021/2022 Overall: 19-17 ATS
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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