The 12-seeds for Bettors to Target Against 5-Seeds in March Madness
With Selection Sunday now in the books, it is time to fill out your brackets.
Arguably one of the most popular picks every year by college basketball fans is determining which No. 12 seeds will upset the No. 5 seeds.
Why, you ask?
History.
Seventeen 12-seeds have knocked out the stronger seeded 5-seeds since 2010, and we have witnessed this upset take place against multiple teams - in the same tournament - a whopping five times spanning the last 11 tournaments!
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Discovering that No. 12 seeds have emerged victorious at a 39% clip in 44 matchups over that span, bettors and those filling out their brackets need to take notice.
Last season, No. 12 Oregon State upset No. 5 Tennessee as a 8.5-point underdogs that also delighted moneyline backers to the tune of +300 odds.
Historically, 5-seeds only own a 93-51 advantage against 12-seeds.
A deeper dive reveals that in 21 of the last 25 years, a 12-seed has won at least one game in the tournament. The only years the better seeds didn’t fall victim to at least one upset were in 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018.
‘March Mayhem’ engulfed brackets in 2019, 2013 and 2014, when three of the four assigned No. 12 seeds advanced to the second round.
In a wide-open field in this year’s tournament, this popular upset will likely be targeted by basketball fans and bettors.
The question becomes which of the four better seeds are the most vulnerable to being upset according to the oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook?
2022 No. 5 vs No. 12 Matchups
No. 5 Saint Mary’s (25-7) vs. No. 12 Wyoming (25-8)/No. 12 Indiana (20-13)
Saint Mary’s earned the best seed in school history (previous best was as a No. 7 seed in 2017) and awaits the winner of the play-in game involving Wyoming vs. Indiana. The Gaels enter with a 25-7 record, which included a 12-3 mark in the West Coast Conference. Saint Mary’s, despite not playing in a major conference, owns three non-conference victories over NCAA tournament teams in Notre Dame, Yale and Texas Southern. Saint Mary’s also holds the distinction of being one of three teams to beat No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga (joining Duke and Alabama). The Gaels head into the NCAA Tournament with a very respectable 19-10-2 against the spread (ATS) mark and will likely be sizable favorites over either the Hoosiers or the Cowboys on Thursday. A matchup with Indiana would definitely enter the radar of upset potential.
No. 5 Iowa (26-9) vs. No. 12 Richmond (23-12)
Iowa heads into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country after winning the Big Ten tournament for the first time since 2006. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 straight-up (SU) and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and have been installed as 9-point favorites over Richmond, the largest spread among 5-seeds. Iowa boasts a 26-9 overall record while owning an impressive 22-13 ATS corresponding mark.
Richmond earned an automatic bid after winning the Atlantic 10 tournament as the sixth seed. The Spiders are making their first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since 2011, and are 23-12 with a disappointing 17-18 ATS mark.
No. 5 UConn (23-9) vs No. 12 New Mexico State (26-6)
Connecticut is one of the most-talented teams in the field, but they are often held back by inconsistent play by several of their stars. The Huskies are a dangerous club with a talented big-man in Adama Sanogo, as well as one of the best point guards in RJ Cole. However, that talent isn’t always on display as bettors can attest over the last month when UConn posted an abysmal 2-7-1 ATS mark over their last 10 games. New Mexico State drew a 12-seed after posting a 26-6 record, capped by a Western Athletic Conference championship. Despite the up-and-down play, it’s hard to envision this Huskies squad being upset by the Aggies.
No. 5 Houston (27-7) vs. No. 12 UAB (29-5)
Houston looked strong en route to capturing the American Athletic Conference title. The Cougars, who went an impressive 8-2 ATS down the stretch, appear primed for a deep run into the NCAA tournament. However, Kelvin Sampson’s crew drew a dangerous University of Alabama-Birmingham (UAB) squad in the First Round.
The Blazers, champions of the Conference USA tournament, have won seven consecutive games. UAB is making its first appearance since 2015 and will be pumped to play the role of bracket buster once again. In 2015, the Blazers drew a 14-seed and upset third-seeded Iowa State, 60-59, as 13.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers were reluctant to install UAB as double-digit underdogs this time around. The Blazers land as perhaps the most dangerous of the No. 12 seeds to pull the upset thanks to the star talents of point guard Jordan Walker, who is averaging an impressive 26.7 points per game over UAB’s current winning streak. Walker is easily one to watch!
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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