March Madness Bets: Three First-Round Games Bettors Should Target Friday
After Wednesday’s victories by Wright State and Notre Dame in the play-in games, the field of 64 is now complete. SI Betting is here to highlight three key matchups on tap for the second day of full action in the NCAA men’s tournament.
As noted in Thursday’s betting article:
Over the last two tournaments, the teams with a better seed have gone 41-22 straight-Up (SU) (65%) but only 24-39 against the spread (ATS) (38%) in the round of 64. Over the last ten tournaments, the No. 5 seeds hold a 24-16 (60%) straight up (SU) record but a disappointing 14-23-3 (35%) ATS mark over the No. 12 seeds. Meanwhile No. 4 seeds have a 14-6 (70%) SU record, but only own a 8-12 ATS (40%) mark against No 13 seeds in the last five tournaments.
On the surface, those statistics may be confusing to digest. What bettors should take away is that investing in underdogs in the round of 64 has historically led to financial bliss. So be careful blindly backing favorites in the first 32 games of the tournament.
The action stays hot on the hardwood with 16 more games on Friday and several games have already drawn strong support from respected money.
Let’s dive right right in!
Check the Latest NCAA Tournament Odds and Lines at SI Sportsbook
Jeff Roberson/AP
No. 10 Loyola Chicago (25-7) vs. No. 7 Ohio State (19-11)
Spread: Loyola-Chicago -1.5 (-110) | Ohio State +1.5 (-110)
Total: 133 – Over (-110) | Under 133 (-110)
Moneyline: Loyola-Chicago -118 | Ohio State -110
Game Info: Friday, March 18, 2022 | 12:15 p.m. ET | CBS
Site: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, Penn.
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has held steady from the opening line of displaying No. 7 Ohio State (19-11 SU; 15-15 ATS) as 1.5-point favorites over No. 10 Loyola Chicago (25-7 SU; 12-15-4 ATS) at SI Sportsbook.
Sister Jean’s boys are back and they are once again poised to advance in the NCAA tournament. Fresh off winning the Missouri Valley tournament, Loyola Chicago has won seven of their nine games overall. Senior guard Lucas Williamson leads the Ramblers attack averaging 14.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. Branden Norris. who leads the club shooting 43.5% from beyond the arc, heads up a Ramblers attack that ranks 18th in the country as a team hitting at an impressive 38.8% from deep.
On the flip side, Ohio State is one of the coldest teams in the tournament having lost four of their last five games overall. The Buckeyes were bounced by Penn State 71-68 in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament as 5.5-point favorites. Overall, Ohio State has burned bettors posting a disappointing 1-4 ATS mark over their last five.
In this matchup, Ohio State will lean heavily on forward E.J. Liddell (19.6 ppg, 7.9 rbg). The junior big-man is as consistent as they come scoring in double-digits in every game this season.
This game will likely come down to Loyola’s efficient offense against a Buckeyes defense that ranks 130th in defensive efficiency - specifically struggling to defend opponents three-point shooting.
The early respected money in Las Vegas and at SI Sportsbook backed Sister Jean and the Ramblers. Now is not the time to get in the way of divine intervention.
BET: Loyola Chicago Moneyline (-118)
John Minchillo/AP
No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies (23-12) vs. No. 6 Texas Longhorns (21-11)
Spread: Virginia Tech +1 (-110) | Texas -1 (-110)
Total: 123.5– Over (-110) | Under 123.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Virginia Tech -105 | Texas -125
Game Info: Friday, March 18, 2022 | 4:30 p.m. ET | TBS
Site: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisc.
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has held steady since its opening in favor of No. 6 Texas (21-11 SU; 12-20 ATS) as 1.5-point favorites over No. 10 Virginia Tech (23-12 SU; 18-16-1 ATS) at SI Sportsbook.
Virginia Tech drew into the tournament as the No. 11 seed in the East Region. The Hokies, fresh off their upset of Duke in the ACC Championship game, head into the NCAA tournament on a four-game winning streak with supreme confidence.
The Hokies are one of the best teams from beyond the arc in the country, hitting at a 38.8 % clip as a team while being led by junior sharp-shooting guard Hunter Cattoor (41.8%). In the ACC Tournament, leading scorer Keve Aluma took his production to another level averaging 19 points and 6.5 rebounds in each of the four victories.
The task of extending their four-game winning streak and advancing to the second round of the NCAA tournament will not be easy task against a Texas defense that ranks ninth in the nation in points allowed (59.5 ppg). However, Virginia Tech, besides being exceptional from three-point range, also plays solid on the defensive end, ranking 18th in the nation in scoring defense at 61.3 points per game.
Texas has struggled immensely down the stretch and enters the NCAA tournament having lost three consecutive games. The Longhorns, who lost their quarterfinals matchup to TCU, have also burned bettors with a disappointing 1-7 ATS mark over their last eight games overall.
Texas is led by senior forward Timmy Allen (12.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg). Allen drastically needs help from his backcourt teammates Andrew Jones (10.7) and Marcus Carr (10.9) if they have any hopes of beating a red-hot Hokies squad. Chris Beard will have his work cut out to find a way to get the Longhorns offense, which has failed to top 63 points in four of its last six games, on track in a short amount of time.
The early respected money in Vegas and at SI Sportsbook is backing Virginia Tech to extend their winning streak and are grabbing the points with the underdog Friday.
BET: Virginia Tech Moneyline + 100
John Minchillo/AP
No. 15 CSU Fullerton Titans (21-10) vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (28-6)
Spread: CSU Fullerton +18.5 (-110) | Duke -18.5 (-110)
Total: 145.5– Over (-110) | Under 145.5 (-110)
Moneyline: CSU Fullerton +1100 | Duke -3333
Game Info: Friday, March 18, 2022 | 7:10 p.m. ET | CBS
Site: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, S.C.
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has ticked up since its opening of No. 2 Duke (28-6 SU; 17-15-2 ATS) as 18-point favorites over No. 15 Cal State Fullerton (21-10 SU; 16-11-2 ATS) at SI Sportsbook to a 18.5-point demand.
Duke is perhaps the most talented team in the country, but over the last month this team has come up short in every big spot in Mike Krzyzewski’s final season on the sidelines. After seeing their seven-game winning streak shockingly snapped by North Carolina in Coach K’s final home game as 11.5-point favorites, the Blue Devils were blown out by Virginia Tech 82-67 in the ACC championship game.
Freshman Paolo Banchero (17.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg) continues to fill up the box score, but he needs more consistent help if Duke is to advance deep into March. Trevor Keels (11.8 ppg), who had notched double-digits in scoring in nine of his last 11 games, has struggled immensely in Duke’s last two games. The star freshman has combined to shoot 2 of 14 from the field (14.3%) in 69 minutes of game action. The Blue Devils will need him to regain his shot if Duke is to advance in the West Region.
On the flip side, Cal State Fullerton has won four straight games - including a thrilling 72-71 win over Long Beach State in the Big West tournament. The Titans, who are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in the role of underdogs, are led by senior E.J. Anosike (16.5 ppg).
Respected money believes an inconsistent Duke squad, that is 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games with a 18.5-point line, will rebound against CSU Fullerton which ranks 165th in adjusted defense in KenPom rankings. Let’s follow their lead and back Coach K’s club to get off and running with a confidence building win in their opening game.
BET: Duke -18 (Buy Hook)
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SI NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BET REVIEW
2022 March Madness: 2-0 ATS
2022 NCAA Conference Tournaments: 7-1 ATS
2021/2022 Overall: 20-17 ATS
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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