AFC East Division Odds: Bills Favored to Take Home Fourth Straight AFC East Title
For years on end, the AFC East belonged to the Patriots, who captured 17 division titles between 2000 and 2020. But since 2020, the Bills have finished first in each of the last three seasons and they are favored to do so yet again.
The reigning division champs are set to face a tougher challenge to extend their streak to four with the Jets' acquisition of Aaron Rodgers. The Dolphins got better this offseason as well, especially on defense thanks to the addition of pro-bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey. And though New England doesn’t profile as a premier threat, a Bill Belichick-coached team should never be completely counted out.
It’s entirely possible that three playoff teams emerge from the AFC East. But only one team can take home the division crown.
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Buffalo Bills Odds to Win AFC East: +130
The Bills ran away with their third consecutive division title in 2022 and tied for the second-most wins in the league. Buffalo did lose its top tackler linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and leading rusher Devin Singletary in the offseason, though the team added running back Damien Harris from the Patriots and replaced Rodger Saffold with Conner McGovern at guard. The front office added tight end Dalton Kincaid and receiver Justin Shorter in the draft, additional weapons for Josh Allen beyond Stefon Diggs, the team’s top receiver three years running. The Bills have affirmed themselves in the NFL’s upper class over the last few seasons and the expectation remains a division title even in an improved AFC East.
Bills 2022 Record: 13-3
Bills 2023 Projected Win Total: 10.5
Bills Home Opponents: Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Giants, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Jets, Patriots, Dolphins
Bills Away Opponents: Eagles, Bengals, Commanders, Chiefs, Chargers, Jets, Patriots, Dolphins
New York Jets Odds to Win AFC East: +250
The Jets had an elite defense last season held back by an anemic offense. After a drawn out process, they acquired Rodgers, an instant upgrade at quarterback that raises the floor and ceiling in New York. He’ll be surrounded by a young, talented group of skill position players like receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall as well as some familiar faces in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, his Packers teammates. The front office spent its first-round pick on edge rusher Will McDonald and added center Joe Tippman and tackle Carter Warren as offensive line depth. The Jets carry the burden of the longest active playoff drought in North American sports, but the combination of an improved offense led by the four-time MVP and another season of strong defensive play should see that 12-year streak end.
Jets 2022 Record: 7–10
Jets 2023 Projected Win Total: 9.5
Jets Home Opponents: Commanders, Eagles, Falcons, Chargers, Chiefs, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Patriots
Jets Away Opponents: Cowboys, Giants, Broncos, Browns, Raiders,Bills, Dolphins, Patriots
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Miami Dolphins Odds to Win AFC East: +290
Multiple concussions limited quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to 13 games in his breakout season, which saw the Dolphins make the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Miami re-tooled the team around Tagovailoa in the offseason and its offense got even faster with the signing of receiver Chosen Anderson and the selection of running back Devon Achane. Defense was a clear area of need and the front office traded for Ramsey, a perennial Pro-Bowl cornerback, and signed linebacker David Long Jr. to help shore up its coverage in new coordinator Vic Fangio’s scheme. Though the Dolphins signed Mike White as quarterback depth, the team’s success largely hinges on the health of Tagovailoa, who missed the playoff game due to a concussion.
Dolphins 2022 Record: 9–8
Dolphins 2023 Projected Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins Home Opponents: Panthers, Cowboys, Broncos, Raiders, Giants, Titans, Bills, Patriots, Jets
Dolphins Away Opponents: Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers, Eagles, Commanders, Bills, Patriots, Jets
New England Patriots Odds to Win AFC East: +750
The Patriots offense took a massive step back in Mac Jones’ second season. The hope in Foxborough is that the return of offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and the additions of receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and tight end Mike Gesicki helps the third-year quarterback regain his footing. New England’s top receiver Jakobi Meyers left in free agency as did running back Damien Harris. Rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez figures to slot in as a Day 1 starter in Belichick’s defense, which is the obvious strength of this team. After spending years atop the division, it appears the Patriots' rivals may have passed them by.
Patriots 2022 Record: 8–9
Patriots 2023 Projected Win Total: 7.5
Patriots Home Opponents: Colts, Chiefs, Chargers, Commanders, Saints, Eagles, Bills, Jets, Dolphins
Patriots Away Opponents: Cowboys, Broncos, Raiders, Giants, Steelers, Jets, Dolphins, Bills
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