Colts vs. Commanders Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Can Washington Pull Off an Upset?)

London, here we come!

The NFL plays the first of multiple games in London this season in Week 4, as the Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts battle with both teams looking to get back to .500.

In Week 3, these teams pulled off major upsets – Washington against Seattle and Indy against Houston – to avoid 0-3 starts, and now they could get themselves right back into the playoff conversation with a win on Sunday morning.

Jayden Daniels (dislocated elbow) is expected to miss this game for the Commanders, putting them in a bit of a tough spot in what is considered a “home game” on Sunday. Marcus Mariota was solid filling in for Daniels in Week 3, but the team has lost the majority of the games that the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year has missed in his career.

Meanwhile, the Colts have impressed over the last two weeks, hanging tough with Kansas City before picking up an upset win over an AFC South rival in Houston. Oddsmakers have set Daniel Jones and Co. as 3.5-point favorites in this game - the first time they’ve been favored in the 2026 campaign.

All season long, the SI Betting is sharing final score predictions to help bettors make decisions on their moneyline, spread and total bets. Plus, we may end up hitting an exact score along the way!

With the Commanders leaning on Mariota again, here’s a look at my prediction for this international matchup.

Colts vs. Commanders Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Colts -3.5 (-108)
Commanders +3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Colts: -185
Commanders: +154

Total

47.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

This line has held steady this week, even with Daniels practicing in a limited fashion ahead of Sunday’s game. The star quarterback isn’t expected to play, which is why Indy remains a clear favorite after knocking off Houston in Week 3.

Colts vs. Commanders Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shares his favorite bet for every game, every week in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the Commanders to cover:

The Commanders likely won't have Jayden Daniels back at quarterback, but Marcus Mariota showed this past week that he's more than just a capable backup. What makes me really like the Commanders in this spot is that their defense has done a great job stopping the run this season. They have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry while ranking third in opponent rush EPA and sixth in opponent rush success rate.

Meanwhile, the Colts defense has been horrific to begin the season, ranking 28th in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. Indianapolis isn't good enough offensively to overcome a bottom-five defense, so I'm going to take the field-goal-worth of points with the Commanders.

I agree with MacMillan’s take on this game, especially since Mariota didn’t look too bad in Week 3. The veteran quarterback completed 19 of his 31 passes for 183 yards and three scores while adding five carries for 11 yards on the ground. Upsetting Seattle – a team that has been dominant on the road under Mike Macdonald – is no joke.

Both of these teams have struggled defensively this season, but the highs of the Washington offense has been much more impressive than the Colts. Plus, the Commanders have been solid against the run (as MacMillan mentioned), which should take away from Indy’s best form of offense.

I think there’s a real chance the Commanders pull off an upset win in Week 4.

Final Score Prediction: Commanders 26, Colts 23

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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