Falcons vs. Packers Odds Movement: Line Continues Seismic Shift Towards Atlanta in Week 3

Thursday is finally upon us, and we're around 12 hours until kickoff between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers to open Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season.

The Packers are favored at home in this matchup, but there has been a ton of movement in the odds for this matchup. DraftKings Sportsbook has seen a 2.5-point shift in the odds, which has happened pretty steadily over the last few days.

Green Bay opened as a seven-point favorite at home in this matchup, but the line steamed down to Packers -6 as soon as Michael Penix Jr. was named the starting quarterback for the Falcons. Penix missed the first two weeks of the season recovering from a torn ACL, leading to the Falcons starting Cooper Rush in Weeks 1 and 2.

Rush struggled mightily, leading Atlanta to the worst EPA/Play in the league through the first two weeks.

Sports Illustrated spoke to some oddsmakers about this matchup to understand the difference between Penix and Rush when it comes to the spread.

"I believe we have Penix worth about a point-and-a-half right now compared to Rush," Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. "And but it is a short week, so we're factoring that in as well, and the Green Bay defense, they've they held their own against the Jets, so we do expect them to hold their own against the Falcons at home on a Thursday night."

After the initial move for Penix, this line shifted to Falcons -5.5 on Wednesday, another positive move for Bijan Robinson and Co. Now, on Thursday morning, the Falcons are 4.5-point underdogs, signaling a full 2.5-point move from the initial line on Sunday night.

This is pretty shocking since DraftKings currently is reporting that just 27 percent of the spread bets and 14 percent of the moneyline bets in this matchup are on the Falcons. Atlanta is off to an 0-2 start, and even the return of Penix may not be enough on the road at Lambeau Field.

Still, it's very interesting that this line has moved so much. There are two ways to look at this:

For Packers bettors, this is a chance to get Green Bay at a much better price earlier than earlier in the week, even though the team is 0-2 against the spread this season.
For Falcons bettors, this could be a sign that you're on the right side, especially if you were able to grab a full touchdown when this line opened on Sunday.

The SI Betting team has props, anytime touchdown scorer picks and more for bettors to get the most out of Thursday's standalone game to open Week 3.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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