Patriots vs. Bills Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Can Buffalo Cover Big Spread?)

The undefeated Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots in an AFC East showdown on Sunday afternoon.

The Bills have covered the spread in all three of their wins so far, including as -7.5 favorites against the Chargers last week. Buffalo leads the league with 101 points through three games.

It’s been a completely different story for the Patriots. After making the Super Bowl last season, they lost in Seattle to open the season and got blown out in Jacksonville last week. At least they took care of business against the Steelers in Week 2 with a 20-3 win, though.

These teams split their two matchups last season with the road team winning each game.

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for this Week 4 matchup.

Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Patriots +6.5 (+100)
Bills -6.5 (-120)

Moneyline

Patriots: +235
Bills: -290

Total

48.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Line Movement: The spread has moved by an important half point since the odds opened for this game. The Bills were -7 at -105 earlier this week, and are now -6.5 at -120. Given the juice, it’s about the same spread, while the total hasn’t moved from 48.5

Patriots vs. Bills Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan broke down this game in his Road to 272 Bets column, in which he picks each game every week:

It's time to buy low on the New England Patriots. I wasn't high on them coming into this season, but they're not as bad as they've shown so far this season. RBSDM.com has the Patriots ranking last in their offensive luck index. Things have not bounced their way, but I expect them to show some level of life in the coming weeks. They rank ninth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.3), and their defense ranks in the top half of the NFL in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.

The Bills' defense is going to come back to haunt them at some point. They're 25th in opponent EPA per play, 27th in opponent success rate, and 19th in opponent yards per play (5.4). Even with your offense being elite, it's going to be hard to win by margin with that defense.

I'll take the points with New England.

Pick: Patriots +7 (-115) via TheScore Bet

While I also think this spread is too high, I wouldn’t be comfortable playing either side in this one. I could see the Bills pulling away at home, but as MacMillan mentioned, that defense is susceptible as well.

I’m expecting a high-scoring game in this one, akin to the 35-31 Bills win last December. In fact, that could very well be the exact final score.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 35, Patriots 31

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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