Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds: Bet on Tampa Bay to Win Sixth in a Row

The Tampa Bay Rays have won five games in a row, knocking off the Cleveland Guardians in their series opener on Monday night.

Now, Tampa Bay is set as a road underdog in Game 2 of this series with righty Nick Martinez (2.10 ERA) on the mound against Tanner Bibee (4.45 ERA). Martinez’s advanced numbers are a little shakier than his ERA suggests, but the Rays starter has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his five starts.

Tampa Bay is 4-1 in those games, and it’s looking to keep pace with the AL East-leading New York Yankees.

The Guardians are back down to .500 this season, and a three-game losing streak has pushed their run differential to minus-9 in 2026.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this matchup on April 28.

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rays +1.5 (-199)
Guardians -1.5 (+163)

Moneyline

Rays: +109
Guardians: -131

Total

7.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Rays vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

Tampa Bay: Nick Martinez (1-1, 2.10 ERA)
Cleveland: Tanner Bibee (0-3, 4.45 ERA)

Rays vs. Guardians How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, April 28
Time: 6:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Progressive Field
How to Watch (TV): Rays.TV/Guardians.TV
Rays record: 17-11
Guardians record: 15-15

Rays vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+339)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why Caminero is a great target against Tanner Bibee:

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero has already homered eight times in the 2026 season, and he has a pretty favorable matchup against Cleveland righty Tanner Bibee on Tuesday night.

Bibee has struggled out of the gate in 2026, posting a 4.45 ERA while allowing five home runs in six starts. The Guardians are just 1-5 when he’s on the mound, and Bibee ranks in the fourth percentile in average exit velocity against and the fifth percentile in hard-hit percentage.

Caminero has fared pretty well against Bibee in his career, going 3-for-9 with a homer and a 1.000 OPS. The Rays star has also crushed right-handed pitching in 2026, hitting seven of his eight homers while posting an .830 OPS.

Over the last week, Caminero is hitting .292 with three home runs and five runs batted in across six games.

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Tampa Bay has been on fire over the last week, and it’s now 9-7 on the road heading into Game 2 of this early week series.

On the surface, Martinez seems like the superior starter in this matchup, but his expected ERA (4.64) and expected batting average against (.271) are actually the exact same as Bibee’s this season. Those numbers rank in the 36th and 22nd percentile in MLB.

So, while both Martinez and Bibee have some shaky advanced numbers in the 2026 season, Martinez has gotten the job done so far, allowing just 25 hits and eight walks in 30.0 innings of work. He hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any start.

Meanwhile, Bibee has given up 33 hits and 11 walks in 30.1 innings of work, allowing three or more runs in two of his outings.

An eight-run showing against Atlanta has really inflated Bibee’s ERA, but the Guardians offense has also been shaky in 2026, ranking 20th in runs scored and 21st in OPS. The Rays, on the other hand, are in the top 10 in both of those categories.

I don’t mind taking a shot on the Rays as underdogs, especially since they are 4-1 when Martinez starts in 2026.

Pick: Rays Moneyline (+109 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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