Texans vs. Colts Score Prediction for NFL Week 3 (Houston Should Bounce Back in AFC South Clash)

A pair of 0-2 AFC South teams are set to face off in Week 3, as the Houston Texans and C.J. Stroud take on the Indianapolis Colts.

Houston has lost back-to-back games to AFC playoff contenders in Buffalo and Cincinnati, and it struggled to generate points in Week 2 with Nico Collins (hamstring) out of the lineup. Stroud still threw for over 350 yards, but he completed less than 55 percent of his passes against the Bengals.

Now, the Texans get a little bit of a reprieve against an Indy defense that was torched by Baltimore in Week 1 and allowed over 30 points in a loss to Kansas City on Sunday night in Week 2.

The Colts are just 29th in the NFL in EPA/Pass on defense, which could make this a big game for Stroud and Co.

On offense, Indy took a step forward in Week 2, riding a huge game from Jonathan Taylor. Daniel Jones also looked better in his second game back from an Achilles injury, but the Colts lost receiver Alec Pierce for at least the next four weeks due to a heel injury. Indy loves to run the ball, and it has a tough test ahead against a Houston defense that is 11th in EPA/Rush this season, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.

All season long, the SI Betting team is sharing score predictions for just about every NFL matchup. Not only will we predict every score for Sunday’s games, but we have individual score predictions as a fun way to help bettors make their spread, moneyline and total picks.

We’ll be analyzing the latest odds and the movement in the market throughout the week, as well as the picks from our team. The goal is to guide bettors in the right direction for their NFL plays, and potentially get a score exactly correct in the process.

Now, let’s dive into the score prediction for this AFC South clash.

Texans vs. Colts Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Texans -3 (-102)
Colts +3 (-118)

Moneyline

Texans: -148
Colts: +124

Total

42.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

This line is climbing in favor of the Texans, even though both of these teams are 0-2 so far in 2026. Houston started as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday night, but it has since moved to a three-point road favorite in this AFC South showdown.

Texans vs. Colts Score Prediction

This week, SI Betting’s senior editor Iain MacMillan made a pick for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week. He’s taking Houston to cover as a road favorite:

The Colts put up a valiant fight in their Week 2 loss to the Chiefs, but there are some underlying numbers that have me concerned about them moving forward. First of all, they're dead last in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -2.2 through the first two weeks. Of course, you can forgive that a bit based on the teams they've had to face so far, but it's worth noting nonetheless.

The key to beating the Colts is stopping the run, which will play right into the Texans' hands. They are top-10 in the NFL in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate, despite one of their first two games coming against the best rushing attack in the league.

Getting Nico Collins back for this game would certainly help our bet, but I feel comfortable betting on this Texans team to win and cover the 2.5-point spread.

I love Houston against an Indy team that is dead last in the NFL in EPA/Play this season. While the offense looked a lot better against Kansas City in Week 2, the loss of Pierce is huge for the Colts’ downfield passing game.

We’ve seen Houston get burned a bit by two elite quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, but I don’t expect a similar result with Jones under center. The Texans are still a playoff-caliber team in my book, and I expect them to avoid an 0-3 start in Week 3.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 20

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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