SI:AM | The Bubble Teams That Will Be Sweating the Most on Selection Sunday

Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I think it’s pretty funny how disastrous the Big 12’s experiment with a glass basketball court was.

In today’s SI:AM:
🤞 Miami falls, but should be in
🏀 Latest Bracket Watch
🏈 Vikings add Kyler Murray

Bubble teams on notice

The internet’s various bracketologists have their work cut out for them this year.

With two days left before the brackets are announced on Sunday, the field for the men’s tournament is full of question marks. The bubble is so weak this year that teams like Auburn (17–16) and Indiana (18–14) are earning at-large consideration. The situation is made even more complicated by the potential for “bid stealers.”

Among the teams balancing on the bubble are Missouri, Oklahoma, Miami (Ohio), Texas, New Mexico, San Diego State and Seton Hall. Some of them are still alive in their respective conference tournaments, with a chance to either earn a résumé-boosting win or clinch an automatic bid, while some are forced to sit at home and keep an eye on their fellow bubble teams.

The situation with Miami (Ohio) is the most fascinating. The RedHawks went 31–0 in the regular season before losing in the opening round of the MAC tournament on Thursday against UMass, suddenly throwing them into the bubble conversation. There was plenty of conversation about whether Miami deserved at-large consideration even before the team lost, and being eliminated from the auto-bid picture made those conversations no longer hypothetical.

The consensus seems to be that Miami will get in. Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Sweeney projected the RedHawks as one of the last four teams in the field in his updated Bracket Watch published on Thursday afternoon. (That would put them in one of the First Four games on Tuesday or Wednesday in Dayton, about an hour from the Miami campus.) ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Miami as one of the last four teams earning a bye, while CBS Sports has the RedHawks off the bubble and squarely in the bracket.

There are compelling arguments to be made for and against Miami’s inclusion. The case for Miami is simple: it completed a rare undefeated regular season. Winning 31 straight games is a major accomplishment, even if you’re playing in the MAC rather than the Big Ten. The case against the RedHawks is also straightforward: Their schedule was exceptionally soft and they weren’t even all that dominant. Aside from a win over eventual Horizon League champion Wright State, their non-conference schedule was very weak. Once they got into conference play, they weren’t exactly running every opponent out of the gym. Seven of Miami’s 18 MAC wins came by three points or fewer. Only two teams in the past 10 seasons have had more one-possession conference victories (2019–20 Virginia and ’24–25 Michigan). The RedHawks were just one shot away from losing a bunch of games.

SI’s Pat Forde wrote at length about why Miami needs to be included in the tournament, and I agree wholeheartedly. Leaving the RedHawks out would send a message that the regular season is totally meaningless for mid-major teams and widen the growing divide between the power conferences and everyone else. Miami might not be all that good, but it needs to be included in the field of 68 to preserve what makes college basketball worth watching.

Assuming the committee does the right thing, Miami will take away an at-large spot from another team hoping to move to the right side of the bubble. Seton Hall, New Mexico and San Diego State could do the same. Most sources currently project all three teams to miss the tournament, but they’re still alive in their conference tournaments. The Pirates will play St. John’s in the Big East semifinals on Friday night, while the Lobos and Aztecs are set to meet in the Mountain West semis tonight. If either of those teams wins its conference, then teams like Texas, SMU and Missouri will be extra nervous.

Another situation worth paying attention to is in the Atlantic 10, where Saint Louis and VCU are projected to be in the field. The Billikens, with seven Quad 1 and 2 wins, are viewed as a lock to make the bracket regardless of how the conference tournament plays out, while the Rams are on the bubble. VCU will play Duquesne in the quarterfinals on Friday evening. A loss there could knock the Rams out of consideration. That would be the best-case scenario for the bubble teams in other conferences. The worst-case scenario would be if VCU advances to the championship game (potentially picking up another quality win in the semifinals over Saint Joseph’s) and Dayton upsets Saint Louis in the semis and goes on to beat VCU for the title, giving the A-10 three bids. If you’re a fan of bubble chaos, that’s the outcome you should be rooting for.

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The top five…

… things I saw last night:
5. The final seconds of Duke’s narrow victory over Florida State.
4. A clutch shot by Kansas star Darryn Peterson to help seal the Jayhawks’ win over TCU.
3. The final 30 seconds of the Celtics-Thunder game. (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t play the hero, but he did break Wilt Chamberlain’s record for most consecutive 20-point games.)
2. Mitch Marner’s goal while falling to the ice.
1. An even better goal by the Sharks’ William Eklund.