Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Auburn Slides Out, SMU and Texas Barely Hanging on

Welcome to championship week! It’s perhaps the busiest week of the year in college basketball, an all-out race to lock in spots in the NCAA tournament with Selection Sunday just days away and the process of building the bracket slowly but surely beginning. Throughout the week, Sports Illustrated will have daily and in some cases even more frequent updates with all the latest in projecting the field of 68. Here’s a look at where things stand entering Friday.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

NC State
UCF
Santa Clara
Missouri

Last Four In

Miami (Ohio)
VCU
SMU
Texas

First Four Out

Auburn
New Mexico
Oklahoma
San Diego State

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech
Indiana
Seton Hall
Cincinnati

This may change between now and Selection Sunday, but Auburn falling to 17–16 after losing to Tennessee knocked the Tigers out of the projected field for now. Auburn just has too many red flags on its résumé to put it in the field at just one game over .500 and with 16 losses. Finishing so poorly (nine losses in its final 12 games) is the nail in the coffin.

SMU and Texas just barely cleared the cut line, and it can’t be comfortable for them knowing that a handful of teams on the outside looking in are still playing. Plus, those spots may not exist when all is said and done with bid stealer situations on the horizon.

Here’s how SI breaks things down among the bubble teams:

NC State and UCF are largely safe. Nothing short of a true calamity would make them fall out altogether.
The last six teams in the field at the moment should be sweating in some form on Selection Sunday, with SMU and Texas in the most trouble at present.
Anyone outside of the First Four Out has no realistic at-large hope. Seton Hall could maybe have a chance with a win over St. John’s and a loss in the Big East title game, but it feels like a long shot.

Friday’s Bubble Games to Monitor

VCU vs. Duquesne, 5 p.m. ET
Seton Hall vs. St. John’s, 4:30 p.m. ET
Oklahoma vs. Arkansas, 9:30 p.m. ET
San Diego State vs. New Mexico, midnight ET Friday

The bubble game counter has dwindled as most were eliminated from their conference tournaments early.

Things have gone about as well as possible for VCU in the week since the Rams’ last game (a win at Dayton) with all the bubble losses. That said, the Rams would be advised to avoid wasting that goodwill by losing to Duquesne. Win that one, and VCU should feel good about at least getting to the First Four, though hardly fully secure.

Our other three bubble teams in action still have work to do. It’s hard to imagine anyone wanting to see Oklahoma right now with how well the Sooners are playing, blowing out Texas A&M to advance on another day in Nashville. The style points may well matter here from a metrics standpoint. A massive opportunity looms vs. Arkansas on Friday. Win that one, and it becomes a very real conversation about whether Oklahoma should be in the field. In the Mountain West, we get a huge bubble battle between San Diego State and New Mexico. It’s more a lose-and-out game than win-and-in, but would also move the winner one win away from the MWC’s automatic bid. That’s the easiest path for both teams, but the winner could sneak in with a loss in the conference title game.

Seton Hall’s most likely path into the field is the Big East tournament championship, but the Pirates enter more serious consideration if they can beat St. John’s on Friday. It wouldn’t be a total shock if they wound up in Dayton with one more big win like that.

Projected Field

Bold teams have clinched their automatic bid.
* — Projected automatic qualifiers.

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 UMBC*/Florida A&M*
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 TCU
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 South Florida*
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 UCF
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Idaho

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 Howard*/Lehigh
No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Akron*
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Sam Houston State*
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 SMU/Miami (Ohio)
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Missouri
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Furman

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 LIU
No. 8 Utah State* vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 St. John’s* vs. No. 12 McNeese State
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 VCU/Texas
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 UC Irvine*
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 Saint Louis*
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Siena

South Region

No. 1 Florida* vs. No. 16 Queens
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Ohio State
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Yale*
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Hofstra
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Santa Clara
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Tennessee State

Bracket Notes

Only minor movement throughout the day Thursday after Miami (Ohio)’s loss in the morning shook things up. Clemson beating North Carolina earned the Tigers a nudge up above Villanova, which lost a bad one to Georgetown on Thursday night. Otherwise, things are largely status quo heading into a Friday with some monster matchups.

As I wrote in Thursday’s bracket notes, it’s important to not overreact too much to results, especially in the final 72 hours until the bracket reveal. Teams aren’t getting bumped up and down a seed line based on individual games in a majority of cases, but the action is still worth monitoring especially as conference championship races come into focus over the next couple of days.

That said, a few games to watch that could have bracket implications:

Florida can almost lock up the fourth No. 1 seed if the Gators beat Kentucky early Friday. It’s hard to imagine UConn passing them with a win or two in Nashville.
The fringes of the No. 2 seed line are worth monitoring with Illinois taking on Wisconsin, and Iowa State getting a huge opportunity against Arizona. The Cyclones blowing out Texas Tech boosted their stock a bit, and another elite win would certainly help.
The battle for protected seeds is also on: Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Wisconsin on the No. 5 line could all add major wins to their ledger to make their case to sneak into the top-four lines, which is critical particularly for geography purposes in the first and second rounds.

More College Basketball from Sports Illustrated

Listen to SI’s college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, below or on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s YouTube channel.