Top 10 Stay-or-Go NBA Draft Decisions That Could Shape the 2026 College Hoops Season

As NIL and revenue-share dollars keep more talent in school, a small group of borderline prospects will go through the combine in May to get pro feedback.

Arizona forward Koa Peat reacts after a play against Arkansas. | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Just 71 players filed as early entrants to the 2026 NBA draft, the lowest mark since 2004 and by far the fewest since NCAA rules started allowing players to “test the waters” before later returning to college in 2016. The biggest driver of that is the NIL and revenue-share boom that has made turning pro far less lucrative financially than staying in school for players not projected to land in the first round. Even some first-rounders can make as much or more money in college. Many top players aren’t even bothering to test the waters and are locking in deals to return to school before the entry deadline. Stars like Thomas Haugh (Florida) and Braylon Mullins (UConn) have already decided to spend another year in college. 

That said, there are still a handful of prospects whose decisions could go either way once they receive feedback at the NBA draft combine in May. Here’s a preview of 10 critical stay-or-go decisions that could shape both this year’s draft and the 2026–27 college basketball season.  

Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt 

Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner celebrates after making a basket against McNeese. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tanner was the biggest key in Vanderbilt’s outstanding 2025–26 campaign, exploding into one of the best point guards in the country and popping big time on NBA teams’ analytical models thanks to his elite efficiency and ability to stuff the stat sheet. The thing holding back his stock is his height. He measured under 5' 11" without shoes at USA Basketball last summer and likely will measure similarly at the combine in May. Someone in the NBA may fall in love with Tanner’s elite IQ and production and be willing to draft him in the 20s, but the safer bet is likely to return to school and be one of the highest-paid players in college basketball at Vanderbilt before making the NBA jump later. His decision would have huge ramifications in the SEC. Tanner would enter next season as a potential All-American and perhaps the best floor general in college basketball. 

Pre-combine prediction: Returns to Vanderbilt

Ebuka Okorie, Stanford 

You’d be hard-pressed to find an NBA team that expected Okorie to be a potential one-and-done entering the season, but the Brewster Academy product was immediately one of the best scorers in the country and willed Stanford to the fringes of NCAA tournament contention. Like Tanner, he could be held back by his size, listed at 6' 2" on his Stanford roster bio with a slight frame. NBA teams will also want to get a sense of how good a playmaker Okorie is—a key litmus test of whether he can be a team’s starting point guard or more likely pigeonholed into a scoring bench guard role. But what more can Okorie prove in a second year at Stanford, particularly with the Cardinal roster fairly unproven around him? 

Pre-combine prediction: Stays in draft

Amari Allen, Alabama

Just three true freshmen averaged at least 11 points, six rebounds and three assists per game this season: projected top-five picks AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer, and Allen, a versatile wing who emerged as a key part of Alabama’s rotation. That versatility is what has moved him into the fringes of the first-round conversation. Allen can defend multiple positions, is a capable shooter and clearly has a strong feel for the game. Alabama will undoubtedly sell the opportunity to be a more featured part of the offense in 2026–27 with a clear avenue to improve his stock into a surefire first-rounder and potentially even a lottery pick in the weaker 2027 draft, but physical wings who provide value without scoring are useful commodities for playoff teams drafting in the 20s. 

Pre-combine prediction: Returns to Alabama

Meleek Thomas, Arkansas

Arkansas guard Meleek Thomas reacts after a made basket. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Overshadowed at times by Darius Acuff Jr., Thomas had an outstanding freshman year in his own right at Arkansas, averaging 15.6 points and shooting 42% from three for the Razorbacks. He’s a dynamic shotmaker who can knock down threes off the catch or the dribble, and his competitive fire is something that has stood out to evaluators since high school. Arkansas has already brought in a top-tier portal shooting guard in Jeremiah Wilkinson from Georgia as a potential replacement, but would surely find a way to incorporate Thomas if his draft feedback isn’t as strong as expected. 

Pre-combine prediction: Stays in draft

Koa Peat, Arizona

Peat made a big splash in his first college game with 30 points against Florida, setting the tone for a strong freshman campaign on the eventual Final Four–bound Wildcats. His game isn’t a seamless transition to the NBA given how limited he is as a shooter, but Peat’s toughness, physicality and consistent impact on winning dating back to high school and AAU will be valued. It’s likely he’ll end up staying in the draft, but if feedback indicates he won’t be a top 20 to 25 pick after the combine, he might consider a college return. 

Pre-combine prediction: Stays in draft

Rueben Chinyelu, Florida 

Florida has already convinced stars Haugh and Alex Condon to hold off on the NBA for another year in Gainesville. Can the Gators do the same with Chinyelu? The Gators’ star center is a double-double machine and one of the top defenders in college basketball. Right now, he profiles as a second-round pick and would almost assuredly return to Florida if that feedback holds, but a strong performance at the combine might make things interesting.

Pre-combine prediction: Returns to Florida

Juke Harris, Wake Forest

Harris seems intent on staying in the draft if his feedback is strong enough after averaging north of 21 points per game as a sophomore at Wake Forest. He could perhaps benefit from the flurry of players projected as late first-rounders returning to school and climb in the late 20s or early 30s with a good chance to get a guaranteed contract. Tennessee is believed to be the leader if he matriculates in college again. 

Pre-combine prediction: Stays in draft

Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State

Iowa State forward Milan Momcilovic reacts in the first half against Tennessee. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The best shooter in college basketball this past season, Momcilovic made 136 threes at an eye-popping 49% on an excellent Iowa State team. His game is limited outside of that, but there’s room for Momcilovic in the NBA as a player with elite size at 6' 8" and top-tier shooting ability. That said, a return to school would make him one of the highest-paid players in college basketball next season, and his stock is unlikely to drop substantially in the next year. 

Pre-combine prediction: Returns to college, currently in transfer portal

Tounde Yessoufou, Baylor 

Yessoufou entered his name in the transfer portal to keep his options open in the event his draft feedback isn’t strong enough. The former five-star has work to do to continue to refine his game and win with skill rather than pure power and physicality, but there’s no question that Yessoufou can score and defend at an NBA level. It’d be a surprise, albeit not a total shock, if he plays college basketball next season. 

Pre-combine prediction: Stays in draft

Allen Graves, Santa Clara

Graves had a monster redshirt freshman season at Santa Clara, earning first-team All-WCC honors and defensive player of the year for a Broncos team that earned an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. He seems well positioned to land in the first round of this year’s draft should he stay in, but it might take a draft-night promise to ensure he stays in rather than taking a massive payday in college. 

Pre-combine prediction: Stays in draft

Other players that could go either way...

Beyond the 10 players above, there are plenty of others currently in the draft pool that could see their next season played either in college or the pros. Here are 10 more predictions with players that seem to leaning to one side or the other.

Highly Likely to Turn Pro  

• Dailyn Swain, Texas
• Christian Anderson, Texas Tech
• Henri Veesaar, North Carolina
• Morez Johnson Jr., Michigan
• Chris Cenac Jr., Houston

Highly Likely to Return to College

• Matt Able, North Carolina
• Flory Bidunga, Louisville
• John Blackwell, Duke
• Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State
• Andrej Stojaković, Illinois

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