Projecting AP Top 25 After College Football Week 11: Indiana Lives Dangerously, Texas Escapes Death Valley

Of the many different forms of adversity in a college football season, travel issues are probably the least likely to occur, though an evermore possible circumstance in the days of conference realignment. And on Friday, we saw just how difficult travel issues can make things for teams, when the Federal Aviation Administration issued a ground stop, canceling more than 6,000 flights across the country, including those for several of college football’s top programs. The ground stop led to delayed kickoff times, and even a public, he-said, he-said between Mississippi and Oklahoma, who disagreed as to the specific turn of events that resulted in the SEC contest being postponed until Sunday afternoon.

But the theme of adversity wasn’t just limited to the pregame trek. It extended to the games across the country, as multiple top programs, from Utah to Texas to Indiana to Alabama, all survived close shaves in their respective contests. Couple that with a healthy amount of carnage at the bottom half of the Top 25, and the AP poll is due for some reshuffling. Here is how we see it playing out when it’s released at 2 p.m. ET Monday, also delayed because of the travel disruption.

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Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 11

1. Georgia Bulldogs (9–1, 7–1 SEC)

Week 11: Beat Missouri, 48–21
Week 12: At No. 20 South Carolina, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

After Georgia stumbled on the road against Auburn three weeks ago, Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart expressed optimism in the train getting back on the tracks.

“They’ll work,” Smart said then. “They’ll respond and they’ll work.”

Smart looks, well, smart as the Bulldogs have since won three straight games, each against conference foes, by an overall margin of 117–36. Georgia’s latest SEC beatdown came at home against Missouri, a 48–21 rout in which the tone was set from the Tigers’ very first play from scrimmage. Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons was picked off by Raylen Wilson, who returned it to the Tigers’ 7-yard line. Georgia promptly punched in a score on a Nate Frazier touchdown, then added scoring drives on its next four possessions.

The Bulldogs offense continued to generate chunk plays, both through the air and on the ground while the defense held the SEC’s eighth-ranked rushing attack to just 3.2 yards per carry. A win next week against South Carolina all but guarantees a spot in the College Football Playoff.

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9–1)

Week 11: Beat Boston College, 41–7
Week 12: Vs. SMU, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

There was a non-0% chance that Notre Dame potentially would fall victim to a letdown performance against Boston College following its season-changing win over Miami, especially given the Fighting Irish’s slow starts in some games this season.

But all potential doubts were dispelled on the Fighting Irish’s opening drive of the game, a nine-play 66-yard touchdown drive that featured plenty of Nolan James Jr. and a 26-yard touchdown strike from CJ Carr. The Fighting Irish running game was equal parts physical and explosive, averaging nearly seven yards per carry. Carr, meanwhile, is playing QB as well as any in the nation, with seven scores and just one interception in his last three games.

You couldn’t ask for much more from Notre Dame defensively, as the Irish stonewalled the Boston College running game while racking up four sacks and practically living in the Eagles’ backfield. Marcus Freeman’s squad is on a roll heading into a home date with SMU.

3. Utah Utes (10–0, 7–0 Big 12)

Week 11: Beat No. 22 Arizona, 40–39
Week 12: At TCU, 9 p.m. ET Saturday

Nothing about this game was easy for Utah. Heck, nothing was easy before the game for the Utes, whose travel to Tucson was delayed by the FAA’s ground stop Friday. Then, Morgan Scalley’s Utes dug themselves an early 14–3 hole.

As he so often has this season, quarterback Devon Dampier slipped on his cape and went to work, leading two touchdown drives capped off by his rushing scores to help the Utes to a 17–14 lead. The two teams traded blows from there and while Dampier and the Utes were far from perfect on offense—the Utes turned the ball over three times—the signal-caller delivered a Heisman-worthy moment late in the fourth quarter: a 70-yard, go-ahead touchdown pass to wideout Creed Whittemore.

Then, the Utes defense, despite surrendering over 400 yards of total offense and 39 points at that juncture, stood tall to force a turnover on downs, allowing Dampier and the offense to put the game on ice. And how about running back Daniel Bray rushing for 197 yards with Wayshawn Parker compromised by injury? Utah remains undefeated and has so far answered every challenge the Big 12 has thrown its way.

4. UCLA Bruins (10–0, 7–0 Big Ten)

Week 11: Beat Illinois, 22–14
Week 12: At Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

UCLA Bruins, AP Top 25 — Ty Dieffenbach shook off an injury to help UCLA remain undefeated. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With rain pouring down on the Rose Bowl, the weather conditions were far from ideal for UCLA. And, after a 54-yard touchdown strike from Ty Dieffenbach to Aiden Mizell on the Bruins’ opening drive, the game conditions followed suit. The Bruins and Fighting Illini traded unfruitful drives, then, with UCLA up 10–0, Dieffenbach suffered an elbow injury after landing awkwardly on a sack just before halftime.

The injury beckoned backup Madden Iamaleava, whose two second-half drives under center resulted in a punt and turnover on downs as Illinois punched in a score to cut the deficit to 12–7. That’s when Dieffenbach, like something out of a Hollywood script, came jogging out of the locker room to roars from the crowd, then led a touchdown drive while completing all five of his pass attempts to give the Bruins some breathing room.

On the other side of the ball, UCLA’s defense continued to be a wrecking ball, producing three turnovers, two sacks, five tackles for loss and a safety. Oh, and give credit to UCLA’s embattled fan base for answering the call and showing up in droves to support the team in poor weather.

5. Miami Hurricanes (9–1, 7–0 ACC)

Week 11: Beat Duke, 36–25
Week 12: Vs. Virginia Tech, TBD Saturday

If the goal of former Blue Devils Darian Mensah and Cooper Barkate was to make Duke miss what it once had, it was mission accomplished for the Miami quarterback and wide receiver in the Hurricanes’ win Saturday.

Mensah, stoic in the face of pressure from the Blue Devils defense, continued his campaign for the Heisman while throwing for 382 yards and a touchdown to a Malachi Toney–less receiving corps headlined by Barkate’s 134 yards on eight receptions. One of the answers in the absence of Toney—and Mark Fletcher Jr.—was freshman halfback Javian Mallory, who scored three times, two of them from 30-plus yards out.

It wasn’t a banner day for the Miami defense, particularly against Duke star Nate Sheppard, but the Canes got stops in the third and fourth quarters, each of which preceded touchdown drives for the offense. Life without Toney hasn’t been easy, but Miami is still in the pole position in the ACC with games against Virginia Tech and Boston College coming up.

6. Indiana Hoosiers (9–1, 6–1 Big Ten)

Week 11: Beat No. 15 USC, 27–13
Week 12: At Washington, TBD Saturday

The cardiac Hoosiers again lived dangerously against USC, And once again, Curt Cignetti’s Indiana squad emerged victorious in the end. With starter Josh Hoover seemingly still hurting, Cignetti went with Grant Wilson under center, and the backup signal-caller, while missing some throws here and there, made some big-time plays and averaged 11.3 yards per attempt. His 42-yard dagger touchdown pass to Charlie Becker was an absolute dime.

The backbone of this Indiana team, the defense, sealed the deal in the fourth quarter with two of its three takeaways. Isaiah Jones’s pick of Jayden Maiava in the red zone not only took away a potential game-tying touchdown, it was an incredible instinctual play in which Jones read the USC quarterback’s eyes and streaked across the field to make the play. You just knew Cignetti’s team was going to deliver after he continued his war against the CFP committee, which may have no choice to move the Hoosiers back up after dropping them five spots after their bye this past week.

7. Texas Longhorns (8–2, 5–2 SEC)

Week 11: Beat No. 24 LSU, 22–21
Week 12: Vs. Arkansas, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

Week 11 provided the ultimate redemption opportunity for Arch Manning, who after leading a touchdown drive on Texas’s first possession, fired three interceptions and struggled against a swarming LSU pass rush for much of the night. But on the game’s final drive, Manning began to get the ball out quicker and made some big-time plays, including three third-down conversions and a game-winning touchdown pass on a beautifully designed play from Steve Sarkisian.

But none of it would have been possible without the Texas defense, which again proved its championship mettle. Defensive back Jelani McDonald not once, not twice but three times picked off LSU QB Sam Leavitt in the red zone, stalling a trio of Tigers drives. And in the fourth quarter, the Longhorns were at their best, forcing punts on all four LSU possessions to keep the deficit at five points and ultimately give Manning a chance to win the game. It wasn’t pretty but it was certainly gritty in the toughest road environment in the sport.

8. Tennessee Volunteers (8–2, 5–2 SEC)

Week 11: Beat Texas A&M, 22–7
Week 12: Vs. No. 24 LSU, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

There were so many reasons why Tennessee could have succumbed to the SEC hangover following its decisive win over Kentucky last week. You name the excuse. The FAA’s ground stop, two injured starters down heading into the game, tough road environment at Kyle Field.

But the Volunteers, despite being bogged down by an inefficient passing attack once again, churned out 196 hard-earned yards on the ground while holding Texas A&M to just 179 yards of offense and creating two takeaways.

The real MVP for the Volunteers, besides their travel support staff, was kicker Cooper Ranvier, who connected on all five of his field goal attempts when the Tennessee offense ran out of steam in Aggies’ territory.

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9. Alabama Crimson Tide (8–2, 6–2 SEC)

Week 11: Beat Vanderbilt, 21–6
Week 12: Vs. Chattanooga, 2 p.m. ET Saturday

Oh how ironic it would have been had Alabama, the CFP committee’s golden child propped up by its nation-leading strength of schedule, lost to Vanderbilt, arguably its easiest game of the year outside of next week’s cakewalk against Chattanooga.

With a hobbled Keelon Russell at quarterback and perhaps dealing with a hangover from Friday’s delayed travel, the Crimson Tide offense was held scoreless in the first quarter for the third time this season.

Then, serving as a proverbial smelling salt to the senses, Vanderbilt notched a field goal with 4:13 remaining in the first half to put the first points on the board. Alabama took total control from that point on, with Russell firing three touchdown passes while the defense completely swarmed the Commodores in a dominant performance.

If we’re handing out game balls to unsung heroes, give one to running back Daniel Hill (89 of Alabama’s 92 rushing yards) and defensive back Dijon Lee Jr. (an 83-yard kickoff return that set up the Crimson Tide for their third and final score of the game). Alabama not only continued its steady march to the CFP, it also exorcised some demons from its last trip to Nashville, a 40–35 defeat.

10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9–1, 6–1 ACC)

Week 11: Beat No. 25 SMU, 49–7
Week 12: At Georgia Tech, TBD Saturday

The good folks at Vegas thought SMU, a slight home favorite over Wake Forest, had a good chance to end the Demon Deacons’ winning streak. The good folks at Vegas thought wrong. Wake Forest overwhelmed the Mustangs with its physicality and a rushing attack that rumbled for 286 yards and a defense that completely stymied the SMU offense to the tune of just 4.4 yards per play.

Wake Forest QB Gio Lopez is a candidate for most underappreciated signal-caller in the country (19 touchdowns against just one interception) while coach Jake Dickert is a candidate for quote of the year: “We’re not finished with them yet,” Dickert said during a halftime interview while up 42–0. “We came for 60 minutes, and they’ve got nowhere to hide.”

Now, after a seventh straight win, six of them by three touchdowns or more, the CFP selection committee should also have nowhere to hide.

11. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9–1, 6–1 Big 12)

Week 11: Beat Oklahoma State, 52–27
Week 12: At Baylor, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday

12. BYU Cougars (8–2, 5–2 Big 12)

Week 11: Beat Baylor, 28–7
Week 12: At Kansas, noon ET Saturday

13. Iowa Hawkeyes (8–2, 5–2 Big Ten)

Week 11: Beat Purdue, 28–7
Week 12: At Illinois, 2:30 p.m. ET Saturday

14. Boise State Broncos (9–1, 6–0 Pac-12)

Week 11: Beat Oregon State, 46–41
Week 12: Vs. San Diego State, 9:30 p.m. ET Saturday

15. Oregon Ducks (7–3, 5–2 Big Ten)

Week 11: Beat Michigan, 31–7
Week 12: At Michigan State, 8 p.m. ET Saturday

16. Kentucky Wildcats (7–3, 5–3 SEC)

Week 11: Lost to Florida, 21–14
Week 12: At Missouri, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday

17. USC Trojans (7–3, 4–3 Big Ten)

Week 11: Lost to No. 6 Indiana, 27–13
Week 12: Vs. Maryland, 6:15 p.m. ET Saturday

18. Ohio State Buckeyes (7–3, 5–2 Big Ten)

Week 11: Beat Northwestern, 28–19
Week 12: At Nebraska, noon ET Saturday

19. Houston Cougars (7–3, 4–3 Big 12)

Week 11: Lost to Colorado, 42–32
Week 12: At West Virginia, 1 p.m. ET Saturday

20. Liberty Flames (9–1, 6–0 CUSA)

Week 11: Beat Middle Tennessee, 28–23
Week 12: Vs. Western Kentucky, 1 p.m. ET Saturday

21. Louisville Cardinals (7–3, 6–2 ACC)

Week 11: Beat North Carolina, 16–14
Week 12: Vs. Pittsburgh, TBD Saturday

22. Florida Gators (6–4, 4–4 SEC)

Week 11: Beat No. 13 Kentucky, 21–14
Week 12: Vs. Vanderbilt, noon ET Saturday

23. UTSA Roadrunners (8–2, 5–1 American)

Week 11: Beat North Texas, 35–16
Week 12: At UAB, 8 p.m. ET Saturday

24. Arizona Wildcats (7–3, 4–3 Big 12)

Week 11: Lost to No. 2 Utah, 40–39
Week 12: At Kansas State, 7 p.m. ET Saturday

25. Memphis Tigers (8–2, 5–1 American)

Week 11: Beat South Florida, 52–41
Week 12: At Navy, noon ET Saturday

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