NCAA Men’s Basketball Pac-12 Tournament Betting Preview: Arizona Aims to Reclaim Throne

Betting analysis for the Pac-12 tournament, featuring top-seeded and No. 2 Arizona looking to win its first conference tournament in four years.

Author:
Matt Ehalt
Publish date:
Mar 8, 2022

In this story:

Washington Huskies

Washington State Cougars

Arizona State Sun Devils

California Golden Bears

Oregon Ducks

Oregon State Beavers

Utah Runnin' Utes

We all love to say it in our best Bill Walton voice.

"The Conference of Champions!"

The Pac-12 tournament kicks off Wednesday with the first round live from Las Vegas, and the champion will be crowned Saturday night.

Conference tournament betting previews: Big Ten | ACC | Big East | Big 12 | SEC

No. 2 Arizona is the top seed and faces stiff competition from No. 13 and second-seeded UCLA and No. 21 and third-seeded USC.

Defending champion, Oregon State, is the last seed in the field. We would advise wagering against the Beavers repeating as champions.

Now, despite what Walton may say, not every Pac-12 team is actually in consideration for an at-large berth. Arizona, USC and UCLA are locks, while fifth-seed Oregon needs a good showing. Kevin Sweeney had the Ducks out as of his last projection.

Pac-12 Tournament Betting Odds

No. 1 Arizona -120
No. 2 UCLA +160
No. 3 USC +1000
No. 5 Oregon +1500
No. 7 Washington State +3000
No. 4 Colorado +4000
No. 8 Arizona State +5000
No. 6 Washington +20000
No. 9 Stanford +20000
No. 11 Utah +25000
No. 10 California +50000
No. 12 Oregon State +50000

Let's break down the field, the odds and offer a bet.

Check the Latest College Basketball Odds at SI Sportsbook

Arizona guard Dalen Terry (4) celebrates while cutting the net after an NCAA college basketball game against California, Saturday, March 5, 2022, in Tucson, Ariz. Arizona won the Pac-12 Conference Championship. — Rick Scuteri/AP

THE FAVORITE: No. 1 Arizona (28-3; -120)

Arizona may not get the national buzz of Gonzaga, Duke or Baylor, but the Wildcats should be one of the four No. 1 seeds as long as they don't suffer a bad loss in Vegas.

The Wildcats rank second in the country—behind Gonzaga— in three important metrics: the polls, KenPom and SI Sportsbook future odds.

This is a team that can win it all.

A good barometer of potential champions is having KenPom top-25 offense and defense, and the Wildcats rank eighth and 14th, respectively. Arizona ranks third in the country by averaging 84.7 points per game, while allowing just 66.7 points per game.

They went 18-2 in conference play, with their losses coming at Colorado and UCLA. Four different Wildcats average at least 10 points per game.

The biggest question surrounding Arizona is its relative inexperience in big games, which seems surprising considering this program's history.

However, the Wildcats have not played in the tournament since 2018 and that marked the last time they won the conference tournament.

Oregon, provided the Ducks win two straight, could be a challenging semifinal foe. Arizona escaped with an 84-81 home victory in the teams' only meeting.

UCLA could provide problems for Arizona in a potential conference championship game considering the Bruins won by 16 in the first matchup. Arizona returned the favor in its home game less than two weeks later, but UCLA superstar Johnny Juzang only played 29 minutes after missing the two previous games.

Backing Arizona is backing the conference's most consistent team from start to finish and one of the country's elite squads.

UCLA guard Johnny Juzang, right, celebrates after scoring as Southern California forward Isaiah Mobley, left, stands by during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, March 5, 2022, in Los Angeles. — Mark J. Terrill/AP

THE CHALLENGER: No. 2 UCLA (23-6; +160)

UCLA entered the year ranked No. 2 in the country following last year's unexpected Final Four run, but hasn't quite lived up to the hype.

The Bruins have been good to very good—but just not elite. Gonzaga handled them with ease early in the season, and conference losses to Oregon (twice) and Arizona State prevented the Bruins from truly challenging Arizona for the conference title.

UCLA has battled availability issues with Juzang missing five games and playing limited minutes in others, while Cody Riley missed nearly two months.

The Bruins pass two key tests when it comes to betting: analytics and experience.

KenPom likes the Bruins, ranking them eighth overall with the No. 15 adjusted offense and No. 11 adjusted defense. Those are strong marks and show they can win it all.

The Bruins also have played in plenty of big games, particularly during last year's run to the Final Four. That experience could matter should they meet Arizona in the finals.

One statistic to like: UCLA went 7-1 against the teams on its side of the bracket, with the lone loss coming to potential semifinal opponent USC.

Getting UCLA at plus-money seems like a strong betting opportunity given the Bruins' pedigree and ability to beat most teams on any night.

Oregon guard Jacob Young shoots during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Washington State, Saturday, March 5, 2022, in Pullman, Wash. Washington State won 94-74. — Young Kwak/AP

THE WILD CARD: No. 5 Oregon (18-13; +1500)

Oregon entered the year as the No. 13 team in the country but now may need to possibly win the Pac-12 tournament to earn its way into the NCAA tournament.

Four losses in non-conference play did not help and an 11-9 mark in a top-heavy conference has it in a precarious situation. The Ducks lost their last three games, including a pair of road defeats to mediocre Washington and Washington State teams.

But here's why Oregon is a wild card: The Ducks are more than capable of beating good teams and that backs-against-the-wall mentality can provide an edge.

Oregon won at both USC and UCLA and even swept the season series with the Bruins. It only lost by one point to USC in the rematch. The Ducks also played potential No. 1 seeds Baylor and Arizona tough this year, losing by a combined 11 points.

The metrics do not love this Oregon team, which ranks 59th in adjusted offense and 112th in adjusted defense at KenPom. They're not particularly great at either end of the court, and they lack a superstar. No Duck averages more than 14.1 points per game.

But when you're looking for value, betting on a team that has the potential to beat some good teams always provides some potential upside.

And should the Ducks somehow get by Arizona—granted, they need to win two games first—they went 3-1 against potential final opponents in USC and UCLA.

Washington State guard Tyrell Roberts shoots during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Oregon, Saturday, March 5, 2022, in Pullman, Wash. Washington State won 94-74. — Young Kwak/AP

THE LONG SHOT: No. 7 Washington State (18-13; +3000)

You can do much worse than 30-1 odds on a team ranked 55th by KenPom.

Let's start with the Debbie Downer side of things for the Cougars: Washington State is an inconsistent team, needs to win the tournament to advance to the NCAA tournament and a quarterfinal matchup with UCLA isn't all that appealing.

Now, for the sunshine.

The Cougars are worth considering at 30-1 for two main reasons: One, they rank well at KenPom at No. 55 overall. That's only 15 spots below No. 3 USC. Their adjusted offense is 81st but their 41st-ranked defense is the anchor, ranking 60th in points allowed per game. Teams that can get stops in tournament play can pull upsets.

Two, Washington State plays teams tough. Eleven of its 13 losses came by no more than eight points—including nine by six points or less—and it only lost by more than 12 points once. This is a team that hangs around and hangs around, even in losing efforts.

It's possible a team that plays close games could get a few in a row to go its way. Washington State has won four of its last five, including a 20-point win over Oregon.

Washington State resembles Oregon's scoring profile in that no player averages more than 15 points per game, but the Cougars have three averaging double-digit scoring.

If you like long shots, Washington State may be right up your alley.

THE BET: UCLA +160

We're going with experience here.

UCLA is a strong, tournament-tested team that already beat Arizona this year. The battle with USC in the semifinals will be tough, but UCLA should have enough to beat its inner-city rival and then take down the favored Wildcats in the title game.

An added bonus: We'll gladly take the plus-odds compared to Arizona's -120 odds.