NCAA Men's Basketball Big East Tournament Betting Preview: Villanova Leads Field
The 20022 Big East men’s basketball Tournament tips off Wednesday at Madison Square Garden with No. 8 Xavier facing No. 9 Butler.
Providence, Villanova, Connecticut, Creighton and Marquette all earned a first-round bye and will not play until Thursday in the quarterfinals.
Despite beating Providence twice in the regular season, Villanova did not earn the No. 1 seed in the tournament. That distinction was bestowed upon the Friars, who won the Big East regular season crown for the first time in school history.
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UConn catapulted up the Big East standings on the strength of a 6-2 record over their last eight games and grabbed the No. 3 seed. However, the hottest team to enter the Big East tournament is No. 6 Seton Hall. The Pirates have won five consecutive games and should easily advance to the quarterfinals to face UConn. Seton Hall's first-round foe Georgetown is on a 20-game winless streak including 0-19 in the Big East.
SI Sportsbook has this tournament tightly bunched among the top-three seeds. According to the odds, this year’s tournament—from the World’s Most Famous Arena—will likely be won by either Villanova (+163), UConn (+333) or Providence (+500).
Big East Tournament Betting Odds
Villanova +163
UConn +333
Providence +500
Marquette +600
Creighton +1200
Seton Hall +1400
Xavier +1700
St. Johns +2200
Butler +3000
DePaul +6000
Georgetown +40000
Check the Latest NCAA Men's Basketball Lines and Odds at SI Sportsbook
Stew Milne/AP
CONTENDERS
No. 1 Providence (24-4 straight-up (SU); 17-11 against the spread (ATS); 14-3 Big East): +500
The Friars are 19-3 in their last 22 games and certainly hope they face anyone but Villanova in the Big East tournament as the Wildcats are the only team to beat Ed Cooley’s squad twice this season. Providence is led by the senior leadership of center Nate Watson (13.7 ppg) down low. Jared Bynum (43.8%) and Noah Horchler (41.6%) dominate from beyond the arc, which will make the Friars a tough out in the Big East tournament and the NCAA tournament. The analytics of KenPom believe this team is just a “mirage,” ranking 27th in adjusted offense and 64th in adjusted defense. Providence continues to defy “the numbers” but will need Al Durham in the lineup as his status for the tournament is in doubt due to a sports hernia injury.
No. 2 Villanova (23-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS, 16-4 Big East): +163
The Wildcats, who are 16-2 in their last 18 games, continue to play at an elite level, posting the most wins (16) of any club in the Big East Conference. Jay Wright has Villanova poised for a potential third national championship in the last six seasons. The Wildcats, who have won four the last six Big East tournaments, are the betting favorites (+163) to improve their trophy case thanks to one of the best backcourts in the country led by Cousy Award finalist Collin Gillespie (16.3 ppg). Despite the elite production from the backcourt, Villanova’s ability to cut down the nets at MSG will likely come down to emerging center Eric Dixon. The sophomore big man has posted double-digits in scoring in 10 of his last 15 games, giving Wright one of his best inside players since Daniel Ochefu controlled the paint for the 2016 Championship squad.
Stew Milne/AP
No. 3 UConn (21-8; 12-16-1 ATS, 12-6 Big East): +333
The Huskies head into the Big East tournament having won six of their last eight games but bettors have not been able to capitalize due to a 1-6-1 ATS mark over that span. Upon a deeper dive, UConn, despite posting an impressive 12-5 SU record since mid-January, only owns a corresponding 6-10-1 ATS mark. The Huskies are led in scoring by senior guard R.J. Cole (15.8 ppg), but sophomore Adama Sanogo (15.3 ppg and 8.6 rpg) is easily their most pivotal player. The Huskies big man has posted eight double-doubles this season and he is the leader of a dominant frontline that leads the Big East in rebounding (40.7 rpg). UConn needs more reliable production from Isaiah Whaley, Tyler Polley and Tyrese Martin if the Huskies have any hopes of winning the Big East Tournament for the first time since 2011.
No. 4 Creighton (20-10; 16-14 ATS, 12-7 Big East): +1200
Creighton’s chances of making a deep run in March took a massive blow when starting point guard Ryan Nembhard (wrist) was lost for the season Feb. 23. Nembhard, who will likely earn Big East Freshman of the Year honors, was averaging 11.3 points and a team-leading 4.4 assists per game. Greg McDermott has now turned to another freshman in Trey Alexander to take over primary point guard duties. The Blue Jays will need solid production from frontline players Ryan Hawkins (14.3 ppg, 7.7 rbg) and Ryan Kalkbrenner (12.7 ppg, 7.5 rbg). Creighton has made the Big East title game in three of the last seven tournaments and is as a deep sleeper with +1200 odds.
Frankie’s Breakdown
UConn will easily have the biggest crowd support as Huskie fans will do their best to turn Madison Square Garden into Storrs South. However, UConn is a fade due to their inconsistency as well as Dan Hurley’s 0-8* record against both Jay Wright and Greg McDermott (*Hurley was ejected in the first half of the win over Villanova). Since UConn came back from a 4-point deficit in the final 30 seconds, it’s tough to award a coaching victory to Hurley in a game that assistant coach Kimani Young was superb in down the stretch.
Seton Hall (+1400), who is surging over the last several weeks, could be a serious problem for the Huskies in the quarterfinals. The road would get any easier with No. 2 seed Villanova potentially awaiting in the Semifinals.
Although it’s never fun to wager on the chalk, the likely winner of the Big East Tournament will come from one of the top two seeds. We will side with the team that has veteran experience, a Hall-of-Fame coach and the best point guard in the country.
Pick: Villanova +163
Value: Providence +500
2022 Big East Tournament Schedule
Location: Madison Square Garden—New York, N.Y.
First round—Wednesday, March 9
Game 1: No. 8 Xavier vs. No. 9 Butler | 4:30 p.m. ET | FS1
Game 2: No. 7 St. John’s vs No. 10 DePaul | 7 p.m. ET | FS1
Game 3: No. 6 Seton Hall vs. No. 11 Georgetown | 9:30 p.m. EST | FS1
Quarterfinals—Thursday, March 10
Game 4: No. 1 Providence vs. Game 1 winner | 12 p.m. ET | FS1
Game 5: No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 5 Marquette | 2:30 p.m. ET | FS1
Game 6: No. 2 Villanova vs. Game 2 winner | 7 p.m. EST | FS1
Game 7: No. 3 UConn vs. Game 3 winner | 9:30 p.m. ET | FS1
Semifinals—Friday, March 11
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner | 6:30 p.m. ET | FS1
Game 9: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner | 9 p.m. ET | FS1
Big East championship game—Saturday, March 12
Game 10: Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner | 6:30 p.m. ET | Fox
SI NCAA MEN’S COLLEGE BASKETBALL BET REVIEW
2021: SI Betting is hoping to pick right up where we left last season when our NCAA tournament betting plays yielded major financial success, thanks to Alabama (+220), Illinois (+375) and Georgia Tech (+2500) all delivering conference tournament championship victories in the SEC, Big Ten and ACC, respectively.
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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